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Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
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- Exit Polls and Projections
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Tag Archives: primary elections
August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington
As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries. Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary. Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year. And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September. (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)
Earlier this week, I discussed the two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri). (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.) The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.
In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term. Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side. It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee. She does, however, have primary opposition. Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign. So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary. (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.) In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close. At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting.
Posted in House of Representatives, Primary Elections, Senate
Also tagged Arizona, Brenda Jones, Mark Kelly, Martha McSally, Michigan, Rashida Tlaib, Washington
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Strategic Voting-U.S. and Abroad
In most of the United States, the general election (at every level) is mostly a two-party race. In 2014, there were thirty-four races in which the winning candidate got less than 50%. In only two of these races did the winning candidate get beneath 45%. In only 11 of these races did the loser get below 45%. In ten of these races, it is probable that the minor part candidates may have altered the winner of the race. Given the rareness of such races, strategic voting is normally not viewed as a significant issue in the general election in the U.S., but it is a significant issue in the primary and in elections in other countries.
Starting with other countries, the two countries with the most similar election system to the U.S. are the United Kingdom and Canada. Both use a first-past-the-post system for parliamentary elections, just like most states use for Congressional and Senate elections. The difference is that — unlike the U.S. — Canada and the U.K. have, at least, three major parties and some parties with regional strength.
In the last U.K. election, the Conservatives won 330 seats out of 650 seats to get a majority. Out of the 650 seats, the winning candidate got less than 45% in 68 seats, and failed to get a majority in 97 seats. The Conservatives won 40 of those seats.
Posted in Politics
Also tagged Canada, strategic voting, United Kingdom
Comments Off on Strategic Voting-U.S. and Abroad