Tag Archives: Raphael Warnock

Georgia Runoff

By tmess2 | Published December 4, 2022

The last election of 2022 will conclude on Tuesday with the runoff election for U.S. Senator in Georgia.    While there are still some races that will go to recounts, all of the statewide and congressional races seem to be outside the margin at which a recount could make a difference.  (There are three races with margins between 500 and 600 votes — Arizona Attorney General, California Thirteenth District, and Colorado Third District.  In the Minnestoa Senate recount in 2008, the net swing from the original results to the recount results was 450 votes with an additional 87 votes gained in the election contest.  The closest of the three races going to recount is 511.   While other recounts have resulted in bigger swings, they were in races with bigger margins and Minnesota remains the largest swing that changed the results of a race.

The significance of the Senate race is not quite as big as it was in 2021 due to the Republicans apparently taking the House (but the Republican’s inability to reach a consensus on the next Speaker will be the subject of a future post) and the fact that the Democrats already have 50 seats.  But the result still matters for five key reasons.

First, the additional seat will alter the composition of committees.  With a 50-50 Senate, the committees are evenly divided.  While the rules currently allow a bill or nomination to proceed to the Senate floor on a tie vote, a 51-49 Senate would result in the Democrats having a majority on the committees. Continue Reading...

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The Fall Campaign

By tmess2 | Published September 4, 2022

Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media).  If that was ever true, it no longer is.  With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August.  If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.

But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October.  (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins.  While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.

But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns.  The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks.  For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate.  Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House.  The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult.  The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process.  Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal.  And the  lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change). Continue Reading...

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Georgia, Recall Elections, Impeachment, and Removal — a Legal Primer

By tmess2 | Published January 8, 2021

In the aftermath of a weak of sedition and riots, I am seeing a lot of questions about issues related to the seating (or exclusion) of Senators and Representatives.  I am also seeing questions about what can be done to bring a quicker end to the mistake that was the Trump presidency.

Let’s start with the Georgia elections.  As we learned in November, it takes time to finalize the election results.  In Georgia, there are three key deadlines.  The first is the deadline for receipt of overseas ballots and for the curing of “rejected” absentee ballots and for determining the validity of provisional ballots.  That deadline was the close of business today.     So, at the present time, all  of the counties should know if they have any votes left to count.

The second deadline is next Friday — January 15.  By that date, all of the approximately 160 counties are supposed to have completed their county canvass and certified all votes to the Secretary of State.  This deadline can be extended if the Secretary of State orders a pre-certification audit (as happened in the presidential race).  (It is unclear how the audit will apply to the Senate races.  The state law required one for the November election but is ambiguous as to the run-off election.  The Secretary of State also opted for a complete hand recount of all votes in the presidential race — which technically is not an audit — but the statute only requires an audit of random counties and precincts.  If a proper – in other words,  limited — audit is conducted, the counties that have to do the audit may not need an extension.) Continue Reading...

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Georgia on My Mind

By tmess2 | Published December 29, 2020

A week from today, there will be two runoff elections in Georgia for its two Senate seats.  One, the race between Senator David Perdue and Jon Ossoff will be for a full six-year term.  The other, the race between Senator Kelly Loeffler and Reverend Raphael Warnock is for the last two years of former Senator John Isakson’s term.

Georgia, like many southern states, requires a primary run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the primary.  However, Georgia is part of a very small set of states that requires a run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the general election (except for the selection of presidential electors).  It also, like some other states (again mostly in the south), uses a so-called jungle primary for special elections in which all candidates from all parties run on the same ballot in the general election rather than having party primaries to pick candidates for the special election.  Back in November, the Libertarian candidate did just well enough in the Perdue-Ossoff race to prevent anybody from getting a majority, and there were enough candidates running in both parties that nobody got over 35% of the vote with Warnock and Loeffler advancing to the runoff.

As the fact that it is primarily found in the South should indicate, runoff elections have a somewhat racist history in the U.S.  While not the only reason for wanting a runoff, keeping power for the white political and economic establishment against reformers who might support an increased role for minorities (among other things) was a motivating factor. Continue Reading...

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The New Senate

By tmess2 | Published November 7, 2020

Based on where things currently stand, it looks like when the new Senate convenes on January 3, the Republicans will have a 51-48 or 50-49 majority (depending upon the results in Alaska).  First, a word on why there will be only 99 Senators.

At this point, it looks like both races in Georgia are headed to a run-off on January 5.  Senator David Perdue’s current term ends on January 3.  As there will be no winner in that race, the seat will technically be vacant as of January 3.   Senator Kelly Loeffler, however, was appointed to fill a seat.  The term for that seat ends on January 3, 2023.  Under the Seventeenth Amendment, until there is a winner of that special election, she continues to hold that seat.  (For Arizona, that means that as soon as the result is certified, Mark Kelly replaces Sally McBride as the new Senator.  So, if there is a lame duck session in December, the margin will be 52-48 rather than the current 53-47.)

The big issue is whether anything will be able to get through the new Senate.  The real question is whether there is a moderate caucus that could try to leverage both parties against each other to make some real reform to allow the Senate to function.  On the Democratic side of the aisle, Senator Joe Manchin (Senator from Coal Country West Virginia) has to walk a very fine line if he wants any chance at re-election.  Likewise Senator Sinema and Senator-to-be Kelly from Arizona represent a marginally swing state as would potential Senator Osser and potential Senator Warnock from Georgia.   And Senator King from Maine seems to be a true independent.  So, there is a group of four to six in the Democratic caucus that are not going to want to move too fast and might be open to reforms to make the Senate a more “collegial” body. Continue Reading...

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Runoffs and Control of the Senate

By tmess2 | Published October 14, 2020

With less than three weeks to go until election day. A lot of ink has been spilled over how state laws on the receipt and counting of absentee/mail-in ballots could delay knowing who won the presidential election.  But it could take even longer to know who will control the U.S. Senate.

One of the reasons is, of course, that the same delay in counting votes for the Presidential election could also delay counting the votes for the Senate elections.  However, given where the seats are and the current polling average, I expect that most Senate seats will be called on election night.  And it is possible that one party or the other will have a good enough night to get to 51 seats by midnight.

But there is a real chance that control of the Senate will come down to three races.  (At the very least, these three races will impact how comfortable the majority is.  Both parties have a handful of Senators who will occasionally split on a key vote.  Needless to say a 50-50 Senate with Vice-President Harris only voting in the case of a tie is going to be less likely to pass major legislation than a 53-47 Senate especially if the filibuster finally goes the way of the dodo.)  And in all three races, the election may not be over on election night. Continue Reading...

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