Tag Archives: redistricting

Redistricting — Colorado

By tmess2 | Published May 22, 2021

Colorado, to a certain extent, resembles Oregon.  Like Oregon, the census estimates show that all of the districts will need to shrink and shift to make room for the new district.   The good news for Democrats is that the least growth is in the Third District (Western Colorado) and the biggest growth is in the First District (Denver).  The potential bad news is the change to the rules in Colorado.

Since the last redistricting cycle, Colorado has taken the responsibility for drawing district lines away from the legislature and assigned it to a new nonpartisan commission.  In short, that means that the new map may not resemble the old map.

Under the new rules, the commission will be composed of twelve people — four Democrats, four Republicans, and four nonpartisan members.  The process for choosing these people also limit the influence of the political parties on the members.  The new rules required the commission to justify any deviation from absolute equality.  It also requires the commission to consider geographic and ethnic communities of interests.  The rules also direct the commission to maximize the number of competitive districts.  Currently, none of the districts are that competitive.  There are two solid Democratic districts (one of which is ubersolid) and two solid Republican districts.  Two of the districts are safe/lean Democratic districts and one safe/lean Republican districts. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Montana

By tmess2 | Published May 16, 2021

Montana is unique among the  states that gained a seat from reapportionment in that it will only have two seats in Congress.  With only two districts, there is limited room for playing games with district lines — every move to make one district safer makes the other district less safe.  By contrast, as the number of districts grow, it’s possible to offset big changes in one district with small changes in multiple districts.  In other words, while it’s possible to pack (putting a lot of members of the other party in a small number of districts) and crack (splitting potential pockets of support for other parties among multiple districts) when you have a large number of districts, you have to either pack or crack when you have two districts.  Simply put, the choice is do you have two roughly similar districts (with the majority party favored in both by cracking the supporters of the other voters among two districts) or do you go for one safer district and one somewhat vulnerable district (with the supporters of the minority party packed into one district).

The other thing about the small states is that they fall into two categories.  Some states (like Utah, Nevada, Oregon, and Kansas) have significant metropolitan areas that are large enough to be the base of one or more districts.  Other states like Mississippi and Iowa really lack one metropolitan area that is large enough to be the base of a district.  Montana falls into this latter category.

In looking at potential maps, I did two alternatives.  One was a basic east-west divide somewhat similar to the way that Montana did when they used to have two districts.  While the exact borders can be adjusted.  A basic east-west divide will lead to one safe Republican district and one safe-lean Republican district depending on how aggressive the legislature is in moving Democrats into the western District (which would be the Democrats best chances at winning a district).    You get the same thing with a basic north-south divide.  To get a Democratic district requires something of a jagged semi-circle with tentacles reaching out to connect the Democratic pockets of the state and counter-tentacles reaching the reddest parts of the southwestern part of the state.  Since the state as a whole is safe Republican (around 53-42),  it is much easier for the Republicans to get two districts than for Democrats to get a real chance at splitting the two districts. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Oregon

By tmess2 | Published May 15, 2021

Moving onto the states that gained a seat this cycle, we’ll start with one of the two small ones — Oregon.  Unlike the colossus that is Texas, where the three major metropolitan area each have multiple district that twist and weave around each other and it is very difficult to describe the urban districts, it is very easy to describe the current districts in Oregon.  The First is the most northwest part of Oregon; the Second is the Eastern part of Oregon, the Third is the Portland area; the Fourth is the southwest part of Oregon (containing both major state universities),  and the Fifth is the northwest part of Oregon south of the First and the Portland area (containing the state capitol region).

Oregon is a mix of good news and bad news for the Democrats.  On the good news side of the equation, the Democrats are in control of the redistricting process in Oregon.  On the bad news side of the equation, the Democrats in Oregon seem to be committed to trying to reach a consensus plan with the Republicans.  More importantly, two of the seats currently controlled by Democrats are very slim Democratic majorities.  In other words, the Democrats option in Oregon is between having three toss-up districts or having two lean Democratic districts and one lean Republican district.

Given these interests, I could see the Fifth moving toward the northeast (taking excess from the First and Third.  The northwestern part of the Second, and the eastern part of the Third and the Fifth would be the core of a new Sixth District.  Most of the western part of the Fifth would get transferred to the Fourth district which would lose its eastern and southern part (basically becoming a very small district to the southwest of Portland).  Basically, the new Sixth would stretch from just east of Portland down to the southwest coast wrapping around the other five districts in a very weird shape.  While it is probably possible to do some additional adjustments, these are the breakdowns that I got (noted there were some third party votes:  First — Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 38.1% (down from approximately 65% Democrats); Second — Democrats 32.2%, Republicans 64.0% (up from approximately 58% Republican); Third — Democrats 71.8%, Republicans 24.6% (down from approximately 75%); Fourth — Democrats 54.4%, Republicans 41.2% (up from 52% Democrats); Fifth — Democrats 56.6%, Republicans 39.5% (approximately the same as currently); Sixth — Democrats 47.4%, Republicans 48.3%. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Texas

By tmess2 | Published May 9, 2021

Texas is up first on the list of first looks at redistricting.  This look at Texas will feature some issues that are going to be recurring throughout this discussion and one issue that will impact Texas the most but might come into play in some other states.

The first issue is that we do not yet have the actual precinct and block level counts from the 2020 census.  That means that this first look is based on the 2019 estimates.  And, of course, estimates are not necessarily exact (as the state level numbers for 2020 showed).  While the far right is upset about the national numbers and want to raise sinister suggestions that something happened behind the scenes to fudge the real numbers, it is equally likely that the previous administration was fudging the numbers in the estimates.  What is most likely is that certain steps by red state governments and anti-government rhetoric led to an undercount of certain groups in red states in 2020 when the Trump Administration was running the Census.  So, we have to expect that there will be some unexpected deviations within states when we get the numbers in November.

The second issue is the Donald Trump had a big impact on voters.  There are various ways to measure partisan lean in a state.  Most involve taking a composite of recent state-wide elections.  The software that I am using is currently based on the 2012 through 2016 elections.  In Texas, in 2012, both Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Mitt Romney carried the state by around 16%.  In 2014, Senator Cornyn carried the state by about 27% and other Republicans were winning by around a 22% margin.  In 2016, Donald Trump won by around  9%.   In 2018, however, Senator Cruz only won by 2%.  While Governor Greg Abbott won by around 13% with the other state-wide Republicans ranging between 3% and 11%.  Finally, in 2020, President Trump only won by 6% and Senator Cornyn won by around 10%.   In other words, what my software is showing as a 60-40 state based on the 2012-16 results is actually something more like a 54-46 state.  And a good chunk of that swing was in suburban districts which probably went from something like 60-40 to very close to 50-50.  Overall, there were three congressional districts (Fourteenth, Fifteenth, and Sixteenth) in which the Republican House candidate beat the 2012-16 Republican composite numbers in their district, and in some districts the Republican underperformed by around 10%. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2021

On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get.  As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.

The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation.   We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million.  As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand.  Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district.  While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.

If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska.  Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives.  If  both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat).  The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat.  Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people.  (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting 2021 — A Preview

By tmess2 | Published April 24, 2021

As long time readers of this site know, back in 2011, we took a rather detailed look at the redistricting process.  While we will once again be looking at redistricting, redistricting is going to be a little bit different in 2021 than it was in 2011.

We are nearing the end of the pre-redistricting period.  This period roughly covers the four years preceding redistricting (Summer of the year ending in 7 through January of the year ending in 1).  There are two basic things happening during this period.

On the political side, during these four years, we are, in most states, electing the state representatives, state senators, and governors who will pass the new redistricting plans.  In other states, we are making decisions about the laws that will govern “independent” commissions that will draw up the new districts.  We are now, with limited exceptions for filling vacancies, past this phase.  It is too late to make changes to state constitutions to alter the rules for redistricting.  In states that leave it to the legislative process, the elections for those positions are done and the winners are in office and have the power. Continue Reading...

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2022 Elections — A First Glance

By tmess2 | Published January 30, 2021

The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided.  And two years is a long time in politics.  But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.

The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats.  But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats.  As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past.  In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander.  And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races.  And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier.  In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term.  But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.

The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted.  This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies.  Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base.  But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms. Continue Reading...

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Census Shenanigans

By tmess2 | Published January 17, 2021

In theory, a President is still President with the full powers of the office until the last second of the term.  In practice, the powers of a president in the last weeks in office are somewhat limited.  Any legislative priorities that could not get through the previous Congress are unlikely to be rushed through by the new Congress.  (In fact, most times, Congress will spend much of the seventeen days between January 3 and January 20 in the necessary work of organizing rather than focusing on legislation.)

On the foreign policy front, it doesn’t take a Michael Flynn violating the law for our allies and adversaries to know that any decision made by the outgoing president can be quickly reversed by the new president.  In short, the outgoing president really is unable to make the type of long-term commitment that would encourage another country to make a deal.

So that leaves a president with actions that can be taken by the president alone.  Not surprisingly, the typical president is giving final approval to regulations and giving pardons and commuting sentences.  The enactment (or repeal) of regulations is a time-consuming process under the Administrative Procedure Act, and the new Administration is unable to simply set aside the last minute regulations.  (In part to deal with this problem, it is possible for Congress to reject these regulations.)  And a pardon or commutation is irreversible. Continue Reading...

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Census Watch 2021

By tmess2 | Published December 18, 2020

As folks who have followed this website for a long time know, the decennial census is something that I consider to be a very big deal.  And, while perhaps not as detailed as we did it back in 2011, I am hoping that we will do something as the numbers come out in the spring about what the numbers might mean for our chances at keeping and increasing the Democratic majority in the House.

Redistricting involves two action at the federal level and at the state level.  At the federal level, the results of the census are use to determine how many representatives each state gets (often referred to as apportionment).  At the state level, assuming that a state has more than one representatives, redistricting involves drawing the lines so that each district has roughly the same population (no more than a 5% gap between the largest and smallest district and preferably smaller).   At the current time, of course, we are dealing with actions at the federal level.  The ball only shifts to the state level once apportionment has occurred and the Census Bureau has released the detailed count (breaking population down to census blocks) to each individual state on a rolling basis.

The federal part of the process comes first and involves two steps:  one involving raw data and the other involving the application of a formula to that data.    The first step is the census finalizing its state level population numbers. According to federal law, by January 1, the Census Bureau is supposed to report its numbers to Secretary of Commerce who is to forward those numbers to the president.  Upon receipt of those numbers, the President is to calculate the number of representatives that each state is entitled to and, by January 10,  forward a statement setting forth the population of each state and the number of representatives that each state will have in the next Congress.  The calculation is done by the “method of equal proportions” (one of several mathematical formulas used to “fairly” allocate partial seats). Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 7 (Referendums)

By tmess2 | Published November 2, 2020

The first six posts in this series have focused mostly on federal elections with a handful of Governor’s races.  Of course, there are also state legislative races, some local (mostly county) races, and referendums.

While I am sure that somebody has a complete list of every local bond issue or city charter issue, this post will focus on the state-wide issues.  More specifically, this post will focus primarily on the changes that will make structural changes to the political system.  It’s not that votes on legalization of marijuana or changes to the criminal justice system are unimportant, it’s just that many of these referendums are the results of the failure of the elected politicians to address these issues.  and it’s the structural changes that may (or may not) make legislatures more responsive to these types of issues.

Several states are considering changes to the structure of elections  In Massachusetts, voters will have the option of following in Maine’s footsteps by adopting ranked-choice voting for most state and federal elections (except for President). Continue Reading...

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