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Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Two — Prime Time Hour One (8:00 to 8:59 p.m. Eastern)
- Exit Polls and Projections
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Tag Archives: Ron Johnson
2022 Primary Season Part 2
Tuesday marks the unofficial start of the second part of primary season. Problems caused by redistricting have altered the normal calendar. with many states going out of their usual order. Normally, there is a good break between the Spring primaries (typically ending by mid-June) and the Summer primaries (typically starting in early August).
Maryland which starts off the Summer primaries this week is a good example of that. It was supposed to be at the tail end of the Spring primaries. Instead, it got moved back three weeks. It and the postponed state runoffs in North Carolina the following week are serving as a bridge between what is typically a five to six week break between the two halves.
The regularly scheduled primaries start the following week with Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington on Tuesday (August 2) and Tennessee on Thursday (August 4). Arizona, Michigan, and Missouri all have races on their ballots which are best described as total chaos on the Republican side. Michigan may be in the worst shape as several of their strongest candidates for Governor failed to make the ballot leaving a real clown car of a race. The results from these three states will help frame the big question on the Republican side for this fall — how off the rails full on Trumpist will the Republican candidates be this fall. The Democrats in same of these early states have our typical establishment vs. the Squad vs. Bernie Sanders vs. working class populism battles. That struggle will also help define what the issues will be in the fall.
Posted in Elections
Also tagged 2022 elections, Liz Cheney, Primaries
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Georgia, Recall Elections, Impeachment, and Removal — a Legal Primer
In the aftermath of a weak of sedition and riots, I am seeing a lot of questions about issues related to the seating (or exclusion) of Senators and Representatives. I am also seeing questions about what can be done to bring a quicker end to the mistake that was the Trump presidency.
Let’s start with the Georgia elections. As we learned in November, it takes time to finalize the election results. In Georgia, there are three key deadlines. The first is the deadline for receipt of overseas ballots and for the curing of “rejected” absentee ballots and for determining the validity of provisional ballots. That deadline was the close of business today. So, at the present time, all of the counties should know if they have any votes left to count.
The second deadline is next Friday — January 15. By that date, all of the approximately 160 counties are supposed to have completed their county canvass and certified all votes to the Secretary of State. This deadline can be extended if the Secretary of State orders a pre-certification audit (as happened in the presidential race). (It is unclear how the audit will apply to the Senate races. The state law required one for the November election but is ambiguous as to the run-off election. The Secretary of State also opted for a complete hand recount of all votes in the presidential race — which technically is not an audit — but the statute only requires an audit of random counties and precincts. If a proper – in other words, limited — audit is conducted, the counties that have to do the audit may not need an extension.)
Posted in 2020 General Election, Donald Trump, Elections, Joe Biden, Senate
Also tagged exclusion of members of Congress, Georgia, Impeachment, Jon Ossoff, Josh Hawley, Raphael Warnock, recall elections, Ted Cruz
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The Count
To quote the Grateful Dead, “what a long, strange trip it’s been.” Our hopes for a decisive enough result that the winner would be clear on November 3 failed to come to fruition. And since then, Trump and his allies have thrown everything but the kitchen sink into denying reality. Even as late as this week, Trump’s allies have been filing meritless cases to try to have judges cancel the votes in various states. And almost all of the case have been rejected by the courts. To date, the Supreme Court has not accepted any cases, and have left most cases proceed on the normal schedule (which means no decisions on taking any of them prior to January 8 when the Supreme Court next meets).
That leaves us down to one last abuse of the legal process — the joint Congressional session to count the electoral votes sent by the states. The current process dates back to the aftermath of the election of 1876. In that election, you had a handful of states with conflicting results certified by different entities. As such, you had multiple states sending votes from individuals that had been recognized by some part of state government as the official electors. Ultimately, a commission was established to resolve those disputes. While it took around a decade to get legislation through Congress, the Electoral Count Act of 1887 set forth the key provisions that are still in place today. The current language in Title 3 sets forth a multi-stage process.
First, prior to election day, each state legislature shall set forth the rules governing the selection of electors. These rules besides designating who makes the selection also dictate the procedures to be followed during that selection, the role to be played by various state agencies (legislatures, state election authorities, and local election authorities) in running the selection process, and who has the power to resolve disputes that might arise during the selection process (courts, state election authorities, local election authorities, and legislatures). While the Constitution does not mandate the use of the popular vote to select electors (and, in the early days, some states had the legislature pick the electors), every state has now opted for using some variation of the popular vote to pick electors. And every state has adopted procedures in which the initial resolution of election disputes are made by local election authorities and state election authorities with the potential for judicial review of those decisions.
Posted in 2020 General Election, Donald Trump, Electoral College, Joe Biden
Also tagged Electoral Count Act, Josh Hawley, Louis Gohmert, Mike Pence, Mo Brooks, Ted Cruz
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The New Senate
Based on where things currently stand, it looks like when the new Senate convenes on January 3, the Republicans will have a 51-48 or 50-49 majority (depending upon the results in Alaska). First, a word on why there will be only 99 Senators.
At this point, it looks like both races in Georgia are headed to a run-off on January 5. Senator David Perdue’s current term ends on January 3. As there will be no winner in that race, the seat will technically be vacant as of January 3. Senator Kelly Loeffler, however, was appointed to fill a seat. The term for that seat ends on January 3, 2023. Under the Seventeenth Amendment, until there is a winner of that special election, she continues to hold that seat. (For Arizona, that means that as soon as the result is certified, Mark Kelly replaces Sally McBride as the new Senator. So, if there is a lame duck session in December, the margin will be 52-48 rather than the current 53-47.)
The big issue is whether anything will be able to get through the new Senate. The real question is whether there is a moderate caucus that could try to leverage both parties against each other to make some real reform to allow the Senate to function. On the Democratic side of the aisle, Senator Joe Manchin (Senator from Coal Country West Virginia) has to walk a very fine line if he wants any chance at re-election. Likewise Senator Sinema and Senator-to-be Kelly from Arizona represent a marginally swing state as would potential Senator Osser and potential Senator Warnock from Georgia. And Senator King from Maine seems to be a true independent. So, there is a group of four to six in the Democratic caucus that are not going to want to move too fast and might be open to reforms to make the Senate a more “collegial” body.
Posted in Senate
Also tagged Angus King, Charles Grassley, David Perdue, filibuster, Joe Manchin, Jon Osser, Kelly Loeffler, Krysten Sinema, Lisa Murkowski, Marco Rubio, Mark Kelly, Mitt Romney, Pat Toomey, Raphael Warnock, Richard Burr, Susan Collins
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