This week will see two developments in our allies.

First, in Israel, we are still in the post-election negotiation phase.  Because the U.S. has an entrenched two-party system, we rarely see this type of negotiation phase (although we saw something of it in the Senate this cycle).  Israel uses a proportional representation system with a relatively low threshold.  And that means that you have a lot of smaller parties with a handful of seats that have to be meshed together into a coalition.  Over the past three years, there have been four elections with no conclusive results.  Part of the reason for the lack of a conclusive result is that Arabs within the borders of Israel form a significant part of the vote (around 8-10%).  There are certain parties that appeal only to the “Arab vote” and the rest of the parties really only seek the “Jewish vote.”  And the Arab parties are unwilling to form a coalition with the Jewish parties and vice versa.  The result is that a coalition needs 61 out of approximately 110 seats rather than 61 out of 120 seats.  Under the Israeli system, shortly after the election, the President gives a mandate to one of the party leaders to attempt to form a coalition.  That mandate lasts thirty days (but the President can give a second chance if the President believes that the additional time will be useful).  After the last election, Prime Minister/accused criminal Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party had the most seats, and the President gave Netanyahu the first shot at forming the coalition.  Netanyahu’s thirty days ends this week.  It does not look like he will get an extension.  The major opposition parties appear unwilling to form a unity government this time.  (The attempt at a unity government after the previous election quickly fell apart forcing a new election.)  The issue is whether we will be looking at election number five or the President will give the opposition a chance.

Second, in the United Kingdom, we will have local elections on Thursday.  There are two things going on.  In England, local elections occur in May.  While local governments have some powers, a strong recurring theme of local elections is a chance to punish the central government over dissatisfaction with the government.  The governing party typically loses local council seats in the May elections.  In Wales and Scotland, this May is election for their assembly/parliaments. Continue Reading...