Tag Archives: South Carolina

Election Night Preview — Part I — Pre-Prime Time

By tmess2 | Published October 26, 2024

The U.S. is somewhat unique among major democracies in having national elections run by state governments (which in turn mostly delegate the actual running of the election to local governments).  While Congress has set a uniform election day for federal offices (including the election of presidential electors) and most states have decided to hold state and county elections at the same time, each state gets to choose the time when polls close in that state.  In other countries, there is either a uniform closing time (mostly in countries with a single time zone) or polls close at the same local time (creating a gradual move from east to west with additional polls closing every hour).  The result in the U.S. is that rather than a stately progression, you have something of a zig zag.

But this zig zag process creates a rolling story for election night (and creates a way for us to break down what to look for on election night.  In this (and following posts), I will designate poll closing times by local and Eastern Daylight times.

Putting to the side the territories, polls start to close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern (which is also 6:00 p.m. local time) in the parts of Kentucky and Indiana in the Eastern Time zone.  These two states are deep red and very gerrymandered.  In other words, there should be nothing to see in these two states.  Indiana has an open Senate seat as the current Senator is running for governor and one of the Republican representatives is running for the Senate seat.  But this state is not on any body’s list of states likely to flip even though the candidate the Republicans nominated for lieutenant governor is extremely controversial (which could make the race for Governor/Lieutenant Governor closer than it otherwise would be).  And none of the House seats in the Eastern time zone are competitive with the closest race having a PVI of R +11.  The only seat worth watching in Indiana’s first district which is mostly in the central time zone.  That district is only D+3, but the Republican candidate is viewed as a long shot.  The early votes are in the more Republican half of the district.  So the first hour or so of return may make the race look close, but, by the end of the night, the Democrat should be up by 10% or more.  In Kentucky, there are no Senate races or state races and the two closest races are +9 PVIs.    In other words, if anything is happening with the House seats in either state or the statewide races in Indiana, that could be a sign that polls are very off.  The most significant races in these two states are two ballot questions in Kentucky.  One is a “throw red meat to the base” proposal to ban voting by non-citizens (which is already illegal).  The other would allow public funding for private schools (which would include religious schools). Continue Reading...

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June Primaries — Colorado, New York, and Utah (and South Carolina runoffs)

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2024

The last ten days of June are going to be busy — 20+ Supreme Court opinions, maybe the first (and only) presidential debate of the cycle, and the last of the “Spring” primaries.  The last Tuesday in June features three states (along with the runoffs in South Carolina).

In South Carolina, the only congressional race to make it to the runoff was in the third district.  This was expected given the number of candidates running.  In the first round, Mark Burns finished 4 percent ahead of Sheri Biggs.  As he only had 33% of the vote, in theory, that meant a very competitive runoff would follow.  But Donald Trump has put his thumb on the scale behind Mark Burns, a wannabe theocrat.  In similar situations, in other states, the second place candidate has opted to stand down.  Apparently, Ms. Biggs is not conceding, but her chances do not look good.

In Colorado, the big news is the open primaries in all three Republican-held seat, especially the game of muscial chairs in the third and fourth districts.  The current representative in the third is Lauren Boebert.  Representative Boebert managed to tick off enough of her neighbors with her personal misconduct (google Beetlejuice and Boebert) and her utter lack of seriousness in Congress.  So she was looking at a competitive primary and a serious general election challenger.  Fortunately for her, she also annoyed ultra-conservative Representative Ken Buck enough that he could not take wasting another day in Congress with folks like Boebert throwing away the Republican majority.    So he decided that he was not only not going to seek another term, but that he was also going to resign.  Now for state and local politicians from the Fourth District, this decision was the opening that they had been waiting for.  They had built up their reputations in their own part of the Fourth District and were ready to try to step up a level.  But for Representative Boebert, it was a lifeline.  You don’t need to reside in the district that you represent; so she decided that she was going to switch districts.  As a result, there are open primaries in  both the third and fourth district rather than just the fourth district.  There is also the nasty need to hold a special election in the fourth.  Representative Boebert could not run in the special election because that would require giving up her current seat.  But the special election is on the same day as the primary.  If one of her opponents had gotten picked by the party to run in the special election, that might give them an edge in the primary.  Representative Boebert managed to convince the Colorado Republicans to go with somebody who was not seeking the full term as the candidate in the special election. Continue Reading...

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Late Spring Primaries — June 11 and June 18.

By tmess2 | Published June 9, 2024

Yesterday marked the last presidential primary contests (in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands).  While some states have a unified primary (presidential and state/congressional), others do not.  while a significant number of the spring state/congressional primaries are part of a unified primary, there are some states that have a separate spring state/congressional primary.  Ten states are having state or congressional primaries over the next three weeks.  After June 25, there will be a month-break with the rest of the primaries taking place in August and September.    Additionally, there will be a special election in Ohio.  A big theme of these primaries will be what happens to some Republican agents of chaos.

Starting with the elections on June 11, first up is Maine.  Both congressional districts are currently held by Democrats.  In both districts, there is a Republican primary.  The first district leans Democratic and the second district leans Republican.   Thus, it is not a surprise that there is a little more money in the Republican primary in the second district.  Both of the Republican candidates in the second district are state representatives.

Unlike Maine, things are a little more chaotic in Nevada.  The Republicans have ten candidates running for U.S. Senate for the right to challenge Jacky Rosen.  The top two fundraiser on the Republican side are Sam Brown (the preferred candidate of the national party) and Jeff Gunter who has gotten significant support from the Freedom Caucus.  Depending on which poll you trust, either Sam Brown has a comfortable lead or it is a dead heat.  At the house level, all three of the Democratic seats are lean Democratic seats, and you have multiple candidates running for the Republican nomination in all three (three in the fourth district, six in the first district, and seven in the third district). Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court Update — Appropriations and Redistricting

By tmess2 | Published May 25, 2024

We are at that point of the Supreme Court terms when we are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  All the arguments and briefing for the term is done, and what is left is for the opinions to slowly drip out.  For now, the Supreme Court is only holding one opinion day per week.  That will be changing soon.

In May, we tend to get the older cases (October, November, and December) that have multiple opinions and newer cases (March and April) that were “easy” unanimous decisions.  As we get later into June, we will get the 5-4 decisions from February, March, and April, and the number of cases will pick up.

So far, in May, there have been three opinion days (with one more set for this Thursday).  On those opinion days, we have gotten, two, three, and three opinions.  With eight opinions down, we still have approximately thirty-five opinions (approximately because there are a few cases that could be consolidated) left to come over the next five weeks.  That number is why we are likely to get multiple opinion days per week in the latter part of June as we need nine to twelve opinion days. Continue Reading...

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South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 27, 2024

It’s hard interpreting the Republican results for president this year.  If Donald Trump were the incumbent, the numbers that he is getting would be the sign of substantial opposition within the party.  If this year were a truly open primary (i.e. he was not being treated as the “incumbent candidate” by Republicans), his results would be outstanding.

But the bigger story out of Saturday might be at the Congressional District level and is about the House of Representatives, not the presidency.  Nikki Haley only won one of the seven congressional districts — the First District.  Nancy Mace is the current, two-term, incumbent.  She was one of the “Freedom Caucus Eight” who voted to vacate the chair.  Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning on supporting a primary challenger to Representative Mace.  Does the fact that Nikki Haley got 53% of the vote show that a majority of the Republicans in the First District will support an establishment challenger to a Trumpist candidate.  If so, the Representative Mace’s time in Congress might be coming to a quick end.  Additionally, while the lines were a little different, the last time that the Republicans were this divided and supported the more extreme primary candidate, the Democrats managed to win this district (in 2018).  So, if the Democrats find a credible candidate for the general and Representative Mace wins the primary, perhaps enough real Republicans do not vote in the general or opt to vote for the Democrat to take this seat away from the Freedom Caucus.

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2024 Presidential Primaries — South Carolina Republicans and Michigan

By tmess2 | Published February 24, 2024

As we head into the last week of February, we are also reaching the end of the authorized early primaries.  Under the respective rules of the two parties, there is a preliminary window in which only some states were authorized to hold early primaries/caucuses.  For the Republicans, the “regular” primary window opens on March 1.  For Democrats, the “regular” primary window opens on the first Tuesday in March (March 5).

For this last week, we have three primaries on the book.  First up, today, is the South Carolina Republican primary.  South Carolina law allows the parties to choose the date of their own primary, and the two parties have tended to choose different dates (but usually a Saturday).  And so we had the Democratic primary several weeks back which was won by President Joe Biden.  Now, it’s the Republican primary.  While there are seven candidates on the ballot, two of them are not known nationally, and three of the nationally-known candidates have dropped out.  In other words, while five of the candidates may get some votes, there are only two with any chance of winning delegates — former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and a candidate who ineligible to be president, Donald Trump.  South Carolina Republicans use a “winner-take-most” system for allocating delegates.  In other words, each congressional district has three delegates and whomever wins that district gets all three delegates.  Likewise, there are twenty-nine at-large delegates, and whomever wins the state gets all twenty-nine delegates.  Especially with only two serious candidates in the races, whomever wins statewide will have won at least one congressional district (and probably will have won more than one).  Thus, the winner of the primary is guaranteed to take at least 32 of the 50 delegates (which is why this type of system is referred to as winner-take-most).  Despite the fact that Nikki Haley used to be the governor of South Carolina, the traditional Republican Party in South Carolina is dead and has been replaced by the Trump Party.  While anybody who did not vote in the Democratic Primary could theoretically vote in the Republican Primary, there probably will not be enough independents and Democrats voting to save the Republican Party from itself.  Polls show Donald Trump leading by a wide enough margin that he should win all fifty delegates, and the only question is whether Nikki Haley can make it close enough to steal a district or two.

On Tuesday, we will primaries for both parties in Michigan.  President Joe Biden should win the state easily.  Neither Representative Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson is a serious contender to reach the fifteen percent to win delegates.  The real contender to take delegates away from President Biden is “uncommitted.”  Representative Rashida Tlaib has been encouraging voters to vote for uncommitted in protest of President Biden’s middle of the road stance on Israel’s response to Hamas’s invasion of Israel.  While the pro-Palestinian progressive wing of the Democratic Party has a problem with Israel trying to remove Hamas from the Gaza Strip, if President Biden were to do what they want him to do, it would guarantee Donald Trump’s victory in November.  If uncommitted stays below 15% (state-wide or in any individual district), President Biden will win all of the delegates (state-wide or in that district).  The largest districts have seven delegates; so it is unlikely that uncommitted will get more than one delegate in any individual district.  The one exception to that might be Representative Tlaib’s district.  And the issue in that district will be whether uncommitted can get to the 21% necessary to win a second delegate.  If uncommitted does not win any delegates in that district, we could see a primary challenge to Representative Tlaib emerge.  State-wide, there are twenty-five at-large delegates and fifteen party-leader delegates.  As such, if uncommitted were to get to fifteen percent state-wide, uncommitted would get, at least, four at-large and two party-leader delegates.   But the expectation is that President Biden will win almost all of the 117 delegates at stake on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 5, 2024

While the numbers are not yet “official” (as folks may remember from 2020, it takes a couple of weeks to formally certify the votes), the unofficial results from South Carolina are crystal clear.   There were minor variations from county to county (mostly in who finished second), but the major story of the evening was relatively consistent.  In every county, President Joe Biden finished somewhere in the mid-90s, and Marainne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips were splitting the remaining vote (each getting in the low single digits).  As a result, neither Ms. Williamson nor Representative Phillips came close to getting the 15% required to win delegates in any congressional district or statewide.

Tomorrow night, we will see if this result is duplicated in Nevada.  But, if it wasn’t clear before this weekend, it should be clear now.  President Biden will be the Democratic nominee this fall despite the wishful thinking and conspiracy theories put out by the Trumpists.  And given the economic numbers, President Biden should be renominated and should be elected.  While the U.S. did have inflation rise after the COVID pandemic, the same happened in every major industrial economy due to disruptions caused by the pandemic (followed by the war in Ukraine).  Compared to other countries (including some run by conservative governments), the U.S. did above average.  Meanwhile, while higher than before, interest rates in the U.S. are still below historical averages, and we have a growing economy with low unemployment.  On the economic numbers, President Biden is doing as well or better than most presidents have in their first term.  And it is the job of Democrats to make sure that the good news on the economy gets out and outweighs the pessimism that frequently is found in economic reporting.

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Presidential Primaries — South Carolina, Nevada, and Virgin Islands

By tmess2 | Published February 3, 2024

Over the next week, we will have four/five primary contests for the two parties.  (Four if you only count the binding contests, five if you count the beauty contests.)  This list includes the first two sanctioned contests on the Democratic side.

First up is today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina.  South Carolina is a little bit different from the rest of the country.  While South Carolina has a state-run primary, it allows the parties to choose the date of its own presidential primary.  As a result, it is not unusual for the two parties to choose different days.  (That flexibility allowed the Democratic National Committee to place South Carolina at the start of the primary schedule.)  The Democrats will hold their primary today, but the Republicans will not hold their primary for another three weeks.

As with most other states, the Democratic primary is essentially multiple primaries at the same time.  There are, effectively, two state-wide primaries — one for at-large delegates and one for “pledged party leader and elected officials” (PLEO) delegates.  Meanwhile, there is a primary in each congressional district.  Voters will cast only one vote, but it will be counted in each of the relevant contests.  For each of these races, the key number is 15%.  Any candidate who gets 15% will get at least one delegate from that pool of delegate. Continue Reading...

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The 2024 Primary Process

By tmess2 | Published February 12, 2023

The advantage of being the party in power is that you can make changes to your rules about your presidential nomination process without worrying about which potential candidate will benefit.  Barring the unlikely event that President Biden does not seek the nomination, he will be the Democratic nominee regardless of the rules.  So these changes will not impact who will win the nomination in 2024, and 2028 is way too far away for anybody to guess who will be running in 2028 much less who benefits from the changes.

First, as always, the nomination process is a battle between state laws and national rules.  And, under the First Amendment, as interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court, the national party rules for choosing the national presidential candidate prevails over state law.  Of course, while the states are unable to bind the national party, the states do set the rules for who appears on their general election ballots.  As of now, no state laws designate anybody other than the national nominees as the presidential candidate of that party (and no state party has refused to certify their national candidate).

Second, the two parties have different rules.  Both sets of rules involve potential penalties for states that violate the rules.  In the past, the two parties had similar rules on timing of primaries.  But this time, thanks to the Democrat’s changes to the list of states that can go before the first Tuesday in March, the list of potential February contests is not the same for the two parties.  And each party has potential penalties for states that violate their rules. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms — Preview (Part 1)

By tmess2 | Published October 29, 2022

We are into the home stretch of the campaign.  This election comes down to those who want to protect women’s rights, LGBQT rights, our democracy, the middle class, and the safety of our streets on one side against those who want to undermine the concept of free and fair elections and impose an authoritarian theocracy on the other side.  The midterm elections are more like parliamentary elections in other countries.  There is no national race and winning is about the results of multiple state and local races.

As in 2020, there is expected to be a large number of votes by mail.  Some states have changed their laws to allow counting of mail-in ballots to start earlier, but some still require the process of verifying and counting mail-in ballots to begin on election day.  So there will be some states in which the Republican candidate will take an early lead based on the in-person votes, but the Democrat candidate will close that gap (and potentially take the lead) as the mail-in votes are counted.  On the other hand, in states that announce mail-in and early voting results first, the opposite will occur.

These previews will go in the order of poll closing times.  In states that are in two time zones, some states will release results as polls close.  Others will hold off on releasing results until all polls close.  If I know that a state holds off until all polls close, I will put the state in the time when the last polls close.  Otherwise, I will put the state in when the majority of the polls close.  I will list the time by Central Standard Time as that is my time zone.  For ease of conversion, CST is UTC +8 (i.e. it is 8 p.m. UTC when it is noon CST), Atlantic ST +2 (2 p.m AtST for noon CST), Eastern ST +1 (1 p.m. EST for noon CST),  Mountain ST -1 (MST 11:00 a.m. for noon CST), Pacific ST -2 (PST 10 a.m. for noon CST), Alaska ST -3 (9 a.m. AkSt for noon CST) and Hawaiian ST -4 (8:00 a.m. HST for noon CST). Continue Reading...

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