Tag Archives: Texas

Why Congress has authority over Federal Elections

By tmess2 | Published March 20, 2021

As Republicans in swing states seem to be dedicated to winning elections by keeping Democrats from voting rather than persuading people to vote Republicans, Democrats in Congress are pushing the “For the People Act.”  Some of the provisions in this Act will prevent states from suppressing the vote in federal elections.  The House version has already passed and it seems that Senate version may be the bill that forces a showdown over the future of the filibuster.

One of the critiques that the conservative media establishment has made of this bill is that it involves a takeover of elections by Congress.  This critique, however, ignores the plain language of the Constitution.  Congress has full authority over elections to Congress.  Specifically, Article I, Section 4 permits the states to make laws about congressional elections but it expressly grants authority to Congress to “at any time by law make or alter such regulations” as the states have enacted.  However, Congress has, for the most part, opted against fully using its authority because it hasn’t felt the need to do so.

In explaining the need for this power, the authors of The Federalist Papers noted that, without this Congressional power, state governments would be able to frustrate the federal government by simply failing to hold elections.  And we are currently seeing, in real time, an example of what state control over elections can mean for Congress. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, House of Representatives | Also tagged , , , , Comments Off on Why Congress has authority over Federal Elections

Election Night Preview — Part 2 (8 PM to 9 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 28, 2020

As noted in the previous post, by 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, we should have a significant amount of precincts being reported in the two earliest states (Kentucky and Indiana) and should be starting to get some counties reporting votes in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont.  During this hour, the counts in those states should be increasing.  By 9 p.m., we should be seeing either some projection in those states or an indication that the states are too close too call.  We may also be getting an indication in some of those states of how many absentee votes might remain to be counted (which could determine whether it will be possible to make any projection in those states on election night).

While it would be nice if we could get calls in a state like Virginia early in this hour, the bigger question as the hour goes will be the types of swings that we are seeing in these states.   Virginia in 2016 was a leading indicator as we were just not getting strong results compared to 2012.  So as this hour goes along and the networks start looking at the maps of the state, the key thing to pay attention to is how the numbers are comparing to 2016.  Even if the networks aren’t comfortable in calling a state yet, if the results are showing that Trump is underperforming in red parts of a state (i.e. rural counties) and Biden is overperforming in the suburbs, then that is a good sign for the rest of the evening as Trump only one by the slimmest of margins in 2016 and any erosion in his support could prove fatal.

This hour has the most states close.  You have partial closures in Florida (the rest of the state closed an hour earlier), Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  While a significant part of South Dakota will close an hour later, the polls close for most of the population in Kansas, Michigan, and Texas at 8 p.m. Eastern.  In addition to these states, polls for the entire state close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 General Election, General Election Forecast | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Comments Off on Election Night Preview — Part 2 (8 PM to 9 PM EST)

Primary Day

By tmess2 | Published July 14, 2020

Today is primary day in three states.  In two of the three (Alabama and Texas), it is actually primary run-off day as the first round of voting occurred prior to COVID-19 becoming a household word.  In the other state (Maine). today is the actual primary day.  Maine uses ranked-choice voting in its primary which means that voters are casting votes for all rounds of the election today.   In all three states, there are senate primaries to choose challengers, and the results could matter in November.

In Alabama, you have former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions seeking to get his job back against former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville.  Besides his coaching experience, Coach Tuberville appears to have relocated to Florida until just recently and has some ties to some hedge fund fraud.  All of which makes him Trump’s type of candidate as Trump wants to stick it to Attorney General Sessions for only bending the law into a pretzel on some occasions and actually realizing that it would be unethical to head an investigation into a campaign in which he played a significant role.   Now, it’s going to be hard for Democrats to keep this seat in November, but I would rather be running against the former coach for Auburn (the “second” school in Alabama) in the hopes that some Alabama fans who would normally vote Republican might have trouble voting for somebody from Auburn.  Additionally, the scandal involving Coach Tuberville might just become a big deal by November allowing us to narrowly keep the seat over a flawed Republican candidate.  While Democrats rightly loathe the positions that Jeff Sessions took as Attorney General, Alabama is still a deep red state.  If Trump and Sessions decide that they have to make nice after the primary, I think it would be almost impossible to beat Sessions in November.

In Texas, you have almost a replay of the recent Kentucky primary.  The preferred candidate of the national party is a moderate, white, female, military veteran (MJ Hegar).  The other choice is a progressive, male, African-American, state legislator (Royce West).   And, like in Kentucky, you have an incumbent Republican member of the party leadership (John Conryn) who will be a favorite for re-election but could be beatable with the right candidate. Continue Reading...

Posted in Primary Elections, Senate | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , Comments Off on Primary Day

Delegate Math 2020 — Super Tuesday (Part 4 — California and Texas)

By tmess2 | Published March 3, 2020

Texas and California as the two largest states in the country are the big prizes on Super Tuesday.  They also have several unusual features that will impact the process.

For Texas, early voting is a significant percentage of the vote.    By definition, people who vote early are locked in regardless of developments that occur between when they vote and the election.  In Nevada, we saw a solid majority of the vote coming from people who voted before the Nevada debate.  In Texas, we could easily have a majority of the vote coming from people who voted before the South Carolina debate (or the results from South Carolina).  The other big thing that makes Texas different is how it splits the district-level delegates.  The national rules only require that states with multiple congressional districts elect delegates from the individual congressional district or some smaller district.  For over thirty years, Texas has used its state senate districts rather than congressional districts in its delegate selection process.  Texas has 31 state senate districts.  Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Texas had fewer than 31 seats in Congress.  Since 2000, Texas has had more than 31 representatives in Congress.  Even though state senate districts are now larger than congressional districts, Texas still uses state senate districts to allocate district-level delegates.

What makes California somewhat unique (some other Pacific Coast states have similar rules) is its liberal rules on voting by mail.  A mail ballot can be dropped off at a ballot drop-off location up until the time that polls close.  In addition, a mail ballot counts if it is mailed on or before election day and received within three days of the election.  Approximately two-thirds of the vote in California is by mail-in or other early vote.  Counting the mail-in vote typically takes several weeks.  Often there is a significant difference between in-person votes on election day and mail-in ballots.  Given how little it takes to change the delegate count in California, any initial estimate of the delegates won in California are just an estimate and the final results could see a change of a delegate in a congressional district or three or four state-wide delegates. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 Convention, Delegates, Primary Elections | Also tagged , , , Comments Off on Delegate Math 2020 — Super Tuesday (Part 4 — California and Texas)

2018 Mid-Term Election Preview — The South

By tmess2 | Published October 26, 2018

The South is probably the region in which there are the fewest competitive races in the country.  The extreme gerrymandering in these states means that outside of Texas, competitive House races are practically non-existent.

Starting with Alabama, while the governor’s mansion and seven U.S. House seats are on the ballot, none of these races currently look close.  This should not be a surprise to anybody.  While Doug Jones was winning the U.S. Senate seat in a close race last year, he only carried one of the Alabama’s seven congressional districts.  With Republican incumbents running in the six districts that Roy Moore carried and none of them a known bigoted pervert, Democrats are not expected to win any of these seats.  Despite the corruption that led to the prior Republican governor resigning, and Kay Ivey taking over last year, the expectation is that Kay Ivey will hold the seat by a comfortable margin.

In Mississippi, the Republicans hold a 3-1 advantage in U.S. House seats now and there is no reason to expect that to change after the election.  There are two Senate races on the ballot.  In the regular election, Republican Roger Wicker should be re-elected.  The interest race is the special election.  Like some other states, Mississippi holds a “jungle primary” (really a general election with a potential run-off) in which all candidates  from all parties run against each other.  Barring a major surprise, this race is headed to a run-off.  And, while Mike Espy is likely to make the run-off, he is unlikely to get his preferred opponent.  There is always a chance that in a lower turnout run-off that Mike Espy might defy expectations and win this seat, but — if this seat becomes important in light of the other results on election day — the money that would pour into Mississippi would make that difficult. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast | Also tagged , , , , , , , Comments Off on 2018 Mid-Term Election Preview — The South

Primary Season — Late Spring

By tmess2 | Published April 29, 2018

Because each state gets to set its own primary date, primary season is a gradual thing.  Putting aside a handful of exceptions (and run-offs), most primaries fall into two clusters.  The first cluster occurs in May and June (starting on May 8 and ending on June 26).  The second cluster occurs in August and September (starting on August 2 and ending on September 13).  During both clusters, most primaries occur on Tuesday, and there is at least one state on each Tuesday (other than May 29).

On May 8, there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.  Key primaries are the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and West Virginia.  Both are states won by Trump in which Democratic Senators are running for re-election.  In Indiana, you have three candidates running for the Republican nomination.  It’s not clear that it really matters who wins or that there is much difference between the candidates.  West Virginia is a different matter.  The Republicans are scared to death that Don Blankenship could get the nomination.  Blankenship is the former CEO of one of the state’s larger coal miner and did time in prison related to miners who died due to unsafe mining practices.  The national GOP has (through super-pacs) been running adds against Blankenship.  In Ohio, the key races are for Governor with both parties having primaries in the race to replace term-limited John Kasich and Ohio’s 12th District in which there is both a regular primary and a special election primary (most of the candidates are the same in both, so both parties should have the same winner for both primaries, but there is always the chance in a close race that there could be a split result).

On May 15, there are primaries in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.  The big story is likely to be the new congressional districts in Pennsylvania.   Amazingly, there are no incumbent against incumbent primaries although there could be an incumbent against incumbent general election.  Given the newness of the lines, it will be interesting to see how the local interests will influence the candidates chosen. Continue Reading...

Posted in Democrats, Elections, GOP, House of Representatives, Senate | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1 Comment

Photo ID and the Courts

By tmess2 | Published August 7, 2016

Vote!In recent years, the Supreme Court has had its version of an “election rule.”  The essence of this rule is that the Supreme Court does not like last second changes to the election process.  Regardless of whether the change comes from state election authorities changing the state’s procedure or a court decision resolving a challenge to those procedures, the Supreme Court prefers to “freeze” the status quo far enough in advance of the election so that voters know the rules and can take steps to comply with those rules.  Perhaps in response to this implied vague deadline (a little less implied in the case of Texas where the Supreme Court indicated that they would consider intervening in there was not a court decision by the end of July), the last several weeks of have seen court decisions in multiple cases involving multiple states seeking to impose a requirement that voters present photographic ID to vote in-person.

Posted in Civil Rights, Judicial | Also tagged , , , , Comments Off on Photo ID and the Courts