Tag Archives: Utah

Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published November 1, 2024

After the heavy numbers of the previous two hours of prime time, the final hour of prime time represents a slight slowing of polls closing.  Of course, that will be made up for as several of the close states will either be projected or turn into all night counts.

There are three partial closings and three full closings this hour.  On the partial closing, we have the second of two 9:00 p.m. local time closings with the eastern (Central Time Zone) part of North Dakota.  You also have all but the panhandle of Idaho closing at 8:00 p.m. local time (Mountain Time Zone).  For both of these states, the part closing represents the majority of the state.  The last partial closing is the one exception to the general trend.  Oregon is the one start in which the majority of the state is in the western part of the state.  So this post will only cover the partial closing in Idaho and North Dakota with Oregon in the next post.  The three full closings are Montana and Utah at 8:00 p.m. local time and Nevada at 7:00 p.m. local time.

Idaho, like Wyoming in the previous post, is solidly red.  If Democrats are competitive at either the presidential level or for either of the congressional seats, then it will have been a very good night for Democrats.   The one contest of interest is a ballot proposition seeking to go to a top four primary with ranked choice voting.   While Idaho is not likely to turn blue anytime soon, a top four primary with ranked choice voting might mean more moderate Republicans representing Idaho in the future. Continue Reading...

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June Primaries — Colorado, New York, and Utah (and South Carolina runoffs)

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2024

The last ten days of June are going to be busy — 20+ Supreme Court opinions, maybe the first (and only) presidential debate of the cycle, and the last of the “Spring” primaries.  The last Tuesday in June features three states (along with the runoffs in South Carolina).

In South Carolina, the only congressional race to make it to the runoff was in the third district.  This was expected given the number of candidates running.  In the first round, Mark Burns finished 4 percent ahead of Sheri Biggs.  As he only had 33% of the vote, in theory, that meant a very competitive runoff would follow.  But Donald Trump has put his thumb on the scale behind Mark Burns, a wannabe theocrat.  In similar situations, in other states, the second place candidate has opted to stand down.  Apparently, Ms. Biggs is not conceding, but her chances do not look good.

In Colorado, the big news is the open primaries in all three Republican-held seat, especially the game of muscial chairs in the third and fourth districts.  The current representative in the third is Lauren Boebert.  Representative Boebert managed to tick off enough of her neighbors with her personal misconduct (google Beetlejuice and Boebert) and her utter lack of seriousness in Congress.  So she was looking at a competitive primary and a serious general election challenger.  Fortunately for her, she also annoyed ultra-conservative Representative Ken Buck enough that he could not take wasting another day in Congress with folks like Boebert throwing away the Republican majority.    So he decided that he was not only not going to seek another term, but that he was also going to resign.  Now for state and local politicians from the Fourth District, this decision was the opening that they had been waiting for.  They had built up their reputations in their own part of the Fourth District and were ready to try to step up a level.  But for Representative Boebert, it was a lifeline.  You don’t need to reside in the district that you represent; so she decided that she was going to switch districts.  As a result, there are open primaries in  both the third and fourth district rather than just the fourth district.  There is also the nasty need to hold a special election in the fourth.  Representative Boebert could not run in the special election because that would require giving up her current seat.  But the special election is on the same day as the primary.  If one of her opponents had gotten picked by the party to run in the special election, that might give them an edge in the primary.  Representative Boebert managed to convince the Colorado Republicans to go with somebody who was not seeking the full term as the candidate in the special election. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms-Preview (Part 4)

By tmess2 | Published November 5, 2022

By 9 p.m. Central ST, we will be getting some results from the early states which will give us some idea of how the night is going with a strong emphasis on the some.  As noted in Part 1 of this series, every state treats the counting of mail-in votes.  In some states, like Missouri and Texas, mail-in votes are likely to be the first results reported.  In other states, like Michigan, those votes are likely to reported after the election day results.  And for election day results, precinct sizes (more importantly the number of voters per election judge) and other factors have historically resulted in longer lines at closing time in urban area.  When combined with the number of precincts in urban areas, in early states, rural areas are likely to report a greater share of their results in the first couple of hours.  Both of these factors distort the conclusiveness of early vote counts (which is why the best analysts start looking at what vote is still outstanding — both where that vote is and the total number of votes — in forecasting whether it is possible to call the race).    But by this time of the evening, there is some hint at the level of turnout in the areas that tend to vote Democratic and the areas that vote Republican and which way swing areas are swinging.

In turn, this information gives us some idea of the accuracy of pre-election polls.   In viewing pre-election polls, there are three things to remember.  First, in viewing them, you should focus on two things — margins and the size of the “undecided” voters.  In every poll, there will be some undecided voters (and, because voters tend not to want to waste votes, the supporters of third-party candidates should be treated as undecided as a significant share of them will move to one of the two major candidates by election day).  Because undecided voters will not split 50-50, a large pool of undecided voters makes the margin less reliable.  An eight percent lead with ten percent undecided is more likely to hold than a twelve percent lead with twenty percent undecided.  On the other hand, it is likely that both candidates will pick up some undecideds.  So both candidates are likely to end up with something higher than their last poll number.  Second, in looking at the margin, every poll has a margin of error (typically between three percent and four percent).  That margin of error applies to each candidate.   Which means, in theory, that even a well-constructed poll can be off on the margin by six or seven percent..  Part of the error is that every pollster has their model on who is likely to vote and how to weight responders to overcome response bias.  Some years the actual pool of voters is bluer than the model shows and in other years the actual pool of voters is redder than the model shows.  Finally, a poll is a snapshot in time.  Events occurring after the poll is taken will move a small percentage of voters (both undecided voters and voters who were tentatively supporting a candidate).  In short, it is highly probable that the polls will be off by some margin.  And while the direction and size of the error will not be uniform nationally, the early returns can give an idea of the direction and size of the error.

As things stand four days out, the polls seem to be indicating a red ripple which will switch a narrow Democratic majority in the House to a narrow Republican majority in the House.  The Senate could go either way and the hold of state offices could swing either way as well. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Utah

By tmess2 | Published June 12, 2021

Utah, like Nebraska and Kansas, is a state in which Republicans technically control the redistricting process, but geography gives the Democrats some hopes.  Where in Nebraska it was the Omaha area and in Kansas it was the Kansas City suburbs, the problem in Utah is Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County.  As in other states, the 2019 estimates from the Census bureau have the more urban Fourth District (central Utah) with too many people and the remaining districts (the First in the north, the Second in the west, and the Third in the east) with too few people.  The three less urban districts are roughly equal (with the Second having around 2,500 more people than the First and the Third), but the Fourth may need to shed over 30,000 people.

In Utah, there is an advisory commission which draws proposed maps, but the maps ultimately are drawn by the legislature.  The maps are supposed to keep communities of interest intact and minimize county splits, but Utah Republicans have already shown a willingness to blow past those state law requirements in the 2010 maps.  After 2010, the maps split Salt Lake County (large enough to have a single intact district) between three separate districts with Salt Lake City itself actually being in the Second District.  These maps carefully divide the Democratic parts of Salt Lake County and Utah County between the three districts.  In other words, the map in Utah is a perfect example of cracking.

If the map makers were trying to be proportional, it is possible to draw a district that combines the Democratic part of Salt Lake County with the Democratic part of neighboring Summit County to create a toss-up district that slightly favors the Democrats.  In short, geography gives Democrats a chance at having one toss-up district in Utah, but the Republicans are unlikely to  draw fair lines. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2021

On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get.  As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.

The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation.   We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million.  As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand.  Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district.  While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.

If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska.  Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives.  If  both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat).  The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat.  Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people.  (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats. Continue Reading...

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Where Things Stand

By tmess2 | Published November 15, 2020

In part because of one sore loser, this year’s election seems to be the one that will not end.  And that means that almost any post based on current information is no longer accurate several days later.  As noted in previous posts, there are three big questions:  1) when are absentee ballots due; 2) when will the vote be certified; and 3) what states might be subject to recounts.  There is also the never-ending litigation being filed by the Trump campaign.

At the present time, California is probably the biggest state in which we are still waiting for late absentee ballots with a deadline of Friday.  At the time that I am writing this post, the margin in the Twenty-Fifth District is less than 100 votes; so late arriving ballots could be a key.  In addition, a recount is a real possibility.

The other big state in which there remains a significant number of ballots to be counted is New York.  At the present time, Democrats have apparently lost the Eleventh District (Staten Island).  There are three Democratic districts that have not been called, but Democrats now lead in two of the three.  There are also two Republican districts that have not been called, but the Republicans have significant leads in both.  Whether the remaining votes will actually swing the districts is unclear. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 4 (10 PM to 11 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 30, 2020

It is very highly unlikely that we will have a projected winner when the clock strikes 10 on the east coast.  Mathematically, it’s possible as by 10:01 p.m. polls will officially be closed in states with 450 electoral votes.  But, practically speaking, it would take all of the toss-up states that have closed before then to have enough votes counted that the networks felt comfortable projecting them, and they would all have to go the same way.  Even in years like 2008, enough of the Democratic vote is in states in which polls close at 10 or 11 p.m. EST, that it would take flipping states like Texas and Georgia to have a shot at reaching 270 before 11 p.m.

Looking at 2016, the first battleground state — Ohio — was called at 10:36 p.m.  Depending on how things play out with mail-in ballots and early voting, some of the battleground states might get called faster, but others are likely to be called much later.

In this hour, we will have partial closures in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon.  In North Dakota and Idaho, the majority of the population is in the part of the state that closes.  As such, we will get a good idea about the state from the precincts that have closed.  On the other hand, only a tiny part of Oregon will close at 10 p.m. and all of the key races will have to wait another hour.   For North Dakota and Idaho, none of the races are expected to be particularly close.  So those contests should be called shortly after 11. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Super Tuesday (Part 3 — Late States)

By tmess2 | Published March 2, 2020

Aside from the big two states (California and Texas), there are three states that will close their polls after 7:00 p.m. CST — Arkansas, Colorado, Utah.   Arkansas and Utah are small red states.  Colorado is a medium-size purple-blue state.  Between these three states, there are fifteen congressional districts with between two and nine delegates each.

A basic reminder, the rules of the Democratic Party requires each state to have district level delegates (roughly 65% of the state’s total), at-large delegates (roughly 22% of the state’s total), and party leader delegates (roughly 12% of the state’s total).  The district level delegates are split between the districts (usually congressional districts) in the state typically based on votes in past elections.  Each of the pools of delegate (each district is a separate pool) is based on the results in the area covered by the pool (the individual district for a district-level delegates and the state-wide results for the at-large and party-leader pools).  It usually takes 15% of the vote for a candidate to be viable.  And the delegates are allocated proportionately based on the percentage of the qualified vote (the total vote for all viable candidates) that each candidate receives.  The percentages below assume that only viable candidates receive votes,  As the early states have shown, with this many candidates, a significant portion of the vote will go to non-viable candidates.  As such, it is likely that candidates will earn additional delegates despite not reaching the target numbers described below.  Covering all possible situations (number of viable candidates, percentage of vote that goes to the viable candidates, etc.) would, however, lengthen these posts by a significant amount.  As long as we still have seven candidates qualifying for the debate stage and potentially qualifying for delegates in a district, we will have to go with this oversimplified calculation.

With Mayor Pete Buttigieg deciding on Sunday to join Tom Steyer on the sidelines, we are down to six major candidates, four of whom have won delegates in prior contests and two of whom have not.  One of those two, however, is Mayor Michael Bloomberg who is almost certain to win delegates.  So in most districts, we are probably looking at somewhere between two and five viable candidates. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Selection Rules — Alaska, Maine, and Utah

By tmess2 | Published April 6, 2019

At this time last week, eight of the eighteen states that had used caucuses or party-run primaries in 2016 had released their delegate selection plans for 2020.  This week three of the remaining ten released their plans and they are a very mixed bag.

This week, we start out west in Alaska.  In 2016, Alaska used a traditional caucus process with the caucuses occurring at the legislative district level.  When it came to allocating delegates to the national convention, Alaska used the raw vote totals from the legislative district caucuses to allocate the “district-level” delegates, but used the votes of the state convention delegates to allocate the pledged party leader and at-large delegates.

For 2020, Alaska is switching to a party-run primary that will allow early voting (either electronic or by mail-in absentee ballot).  Additionally, the party will run voting centers in key locations that will be open for at least four hours on the primary/caucus date (although there is conflicting language in the draft concerning the times that these centers will be open).  All of the delegates to the national convention will be allocated based on the results of the party-run primary.  (Like many “primary” states, Alaska will continue to use the local caucuses to choose delegates to the state convention which will elect the actual national convention delegates.) Continue Reading...

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2018 Mid-term Election — Rocky Mountains

By tmess2 | Published October 30, 2018

While it’s not an exact East-West line, the Rocky Mountain region has seen a lot of change in recent years.  While not the same in every state, the southern part of the region has trended a little more toward the Democrats while the northern part has, maybe, gotten even redder.

In Montana, we have a weird combination of races.  For Senate, even with President Trump firing with both barrels due to Senator Tester shooting down Trump’s misguided cronyism at the Department of Veteran’s Affair, Senator Tester seems to have a somewhat comfortable lead in the Senate race.  On the other hand, WWE-wannabe Greg Gianforte seems to be holding on (by a less comfortable margin) in the U.S. House race.

In Wyoming, the Democrats really have very little chance at picking up any of the races.  A successful outcome would be holding the Republicans beneath 55% in any of the three main races.

Colorado is moving from purple to lean Democrat.  It looks like Jared Polis has a solid lead in the race for governor.  Right now, the Republicans have four of the seven house seats.  It looks like the Democrats are likely to gain at least one seat (Sixth District) and are only slight underdogs to gain a second seat (Third District).

New Mexico like Colorado is gradually becoming blue.  The mid-term environment allowed the Republicans to win the race for Governor in 2010 and 2014, but, with an open seat this time, it looks very likely to be a Democratic pick-up.  And with two Congressmen running for governor, the Democrats are solid favorites to hold their two seats and a very narrow underdog to sweep the state and pick-up the Republicans only seat.

Arizona is the big question mark of the election.  Once the bastion of traditional conservatism, the Republican Party has had to try to skirt the fence between traditional Republicanism and the new far right nationalism represented by Trump.  This impossible task has created an open Senate seat when Jeff Flake saw the tea leaves on the wall for the Republican primary.  While not a sure thing (as the Republicans are throwing every piece of dirt along with the kitchen sink), Arizona is the best opportunity right now for the Democrats to gain a Senate seat.  On the other hand, the incumbent Governor seems to have threaded the needle and should win re-election barring a very strong Hispanic turnout.  Arizona’s House delegation is currently 5-4 in favor of the Republicans.  However, the Democrats are likely to flip that by picking up the Second District.  There are two longer shots.  The interesting story in Arizona is the Fourth District where the Republican candidate is so outrageous that his own family has cut ads against him.  Unfortunately, that district is so red that Satan himself could win running as a Republican.

Moving north, Utah is the home of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, and the church has a large influence over state politics.  The Mormons have had some trouble with Trump’s unrepentant bigotry and sexism.  (Not that the Church itself has not had a history of having trouble with those issues, but it has made effort to improve its language if not its practices.)  It looks like the Republicans will be sending Mitt Romney to the Senate to pester Trump.  In the House, the Republicans drew the district lines to split the Democratic strength in the Salt Lake City area into two districts.  Even with lines favoring Republicans, the Democrats are slight favorites to take the Fourth District back (which would give them a grand total of one seat in Utah).

Everything is on the line in Nevada.  In the Summer of 2017, Senator Dean Heller looked like the most vulnerable Senate Republican.  Unlike Senator Flake, Senator Heller managed to have state leaders convince potential primary challengers to find another race.  Nevada is really two states.  You have three districts in the southern half of the state (all taking in part of the Las Vegas area) and one district covering the northern half of the state.  The Democrats currently control all three of the Las Vegas area seats (some by narrow margins) and the Republicans dominate the rest of the state.  The Congressional delegation seems likely to stay the same.  On the other hand, both of the state-wide races are too close to call with Republicans having a narrow lead.  Again, this race is likely to come down to turnout.  If the hotel unions in Las Vegas can get their members to vote, Democrats might sweep at the state level.  If not, the Republicans will likely escape by the skin of their teeth.  The Senate race is the second best chance for a Democratic gain, and it is hard to see how we get to 51 without winning Nevada.  It’s possible, just not likely.

Finally, there is Idaho.  Two House seats and the Governor’s race.  All currently held by Republicans.  Getting to 40% in any of the races would be a moral victory for Democrats.

Looking at referendums, Arizona has two interesting referendums that are likely to boost turnout on both sides.  On the one hand, there is a proposal to prevent future tax hikes on services.  On the other hand, there is a proposal to require Arizona to have renewable energy represent 50% of the state’s energy by 2030.   Colorado has a slew of referendums including changes to campaign finance law, establishing redistricting commissions, and limits on fracking.  Idaho does have a Medicaid expansion proposition as does Montana.  Montana also has a proposal to limit who can collect ballots.  (I don’t know if this is a problem in Montana, but it is in some parts of the country where some political organizations pressure voters to apply for and mail in absentee ballots for the organization’s candidates.)  Nevada has a renewable energy proposition as well as a motor voter proposal.  Utah has a trifecta of progressive proposals — Medicaid expansion, medical marijuana, and a redistricting commission.

In short, this region has only a handful of Democratic pick-up opportunities in the House — two probable and maybe two or three others.  On the other hand, it does have two potential pick-ups in Governor races, and three key Senate races with a potential net gain of two Senate seats for the Democrats which are key to the Democrat’s chance at winning control of the Senate.

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