Tag Archives: Washington

2018 Mid-term Elections — Pacific Coast

After starting in the Northeast with Maine. we finally reach the West Coast.  Given the number of Congressional seats in California, the West Coast will be a key part of any Democratic majority in the U.S. House.  The bad news, however, is that there are so few Republican seats left here (approximately 20 seats total), that the gains will be rather minimal as a percentage of the total seats available (71 seats).

In Washington, it looks like Democrats will keep the U.S. Senate seat by a comfortable margin.  In the House, Washington is one of two states (California being the other) with a top-two primary.  In practical terms, that creates the possibility that both candidates could be Democrats, both candidates could be Republican, or that the second candidate is an independent or third-party candidate.  Of the ten seats in Washington, Republicans were  shut out of the general election in two seats, leaving eight seats where a Republican will face a Democrat.  Republicans currently hold four seats.  Right now, the Democrats are slight favorites in the Eighth, underdogs in the Third, and have an outside chance in the Fifth (currently held by the highest ranking Republican woman in Congress, Cathy McMorris Rogers).

In Oregon, the Democratic governor is a slight favorite in her bid for re-election but this race is too close for comfort.  Democrats control four of the five U.S. House seats in Oregon, but the one Republican seat is so red that it is unlikely that the Democrats will win that seat. Continue Reading...

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Late Summer Primaries

While a slim majority of states hold their primaries (at least in non-presidential years) in May and June, most of the rest of the states hold their primaries in August and the first part of September.  With the caution that there are always races that develop at the local level outside the glare of the national media (see New York 14), here is what to look out for over the next two months.

Before the next round of primaries begin, there are run-offs in July.  The biggest of the run-offs is probably the Georgia Governor’s race on the Republican side where both candidates are trying their best to out-conservative each other.

The late summer primary season kicks off on August 2 with Tennessee.  The big race in the fall will be the U.S. Senate seat, but the primaries do not appear to be competitive.  The primaries for Governor on the hand may be more competitive.  While none of the Congressional seats are likely to be competitive in the fall, the Republicans have several decently funded candidate running for the open seat (the Republican incumbent is one of those in the Governor’s race) in the Sixth District. Continue Reading...

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Election Night 2016 — What to Look For (Part Five)

capitolThere are potential ways that the votes could come in tomorrow that would lead to one of the candidates reaching 270 before 11 p.m. (EST).  It is also theoretically possible that one party or the other could wrap up the Senate or the House by 11 p.m.   Both, however, are very unlikely in the absence of a clear landslide.  The last batch of states represent 10 likely electoral votes for the Republicans and 78 likely electoral votes for the Democrats.  (To make up for the 78, Clinton would essentially have to win all of the contested states.  To make up for the 10, Trump would need to win Michigan or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin in addition to the other contested states.)  The Republicans are defending twenty contested House seats in these states (and it is unlikely that all of the House seats from the earlier states will have been declared.)  The Republicans have three Senate seats in the last batch of states and the Democrats have two (not counting California in which the two candidates in the run-off are both Democrats).

11:00 p.m. (EST) — The polls in most of the remaining states close.  In particular, the remaining polls in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon close.  All of the polls in California, Hawaii, and Washington close.  Of the state-wide races, the only potentially close race is governor in Washington.  Most of these races should be called pretty quickly.

Continue Reading...

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