Tag Archives: Wyoming

Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published October 31, 2024

As the major networks into the second hour of coverage, the focus begins to move from exit polls to actual returns.  Counting the split states in their main time zone, polls have now closed in the overwhelming majority of states.  For the first group of states (the ten that closed before 8:00 p.m. Eastern), you now have a good chunk of the returns from rural counties and you will have most of them by the end of this hour).  For the second group of states (the twenty that closed between 8:00 p.m. and 8:59 p.m. Eastern), those returns are just starting to come in.  In both cases, the people doing the math are comparing those returns to the results from 2016 and 2020 to see what, if anything has changed (percentages, margins, turnout).  And while you tend to have good exit polls for the statewide races, many congressional districts need these early returns to confirm the anticipated results.

This hour will see the remaining polls close in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas.  We will also see the polls close in Nebraska, which like Tennessee in the previous hour, opts to close all polls at the same time even though the state has two time zones (so the eastern part of the state closes at 8:00 p.m. local time and the western part of the state closes at 9:00 p.m. local time).  You have the last of the Eastern Time Zone states, New York, close its polls at 9:00 p.m. local time.  You have four Central Time Zone states — Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, and most significantly Wisconsin — close at 8:00 p.m. local time along with the eastern half of North Dakota.  Finally, polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time in four states located in the Mountain Time Zone of which the most significant is Arizona but also includes Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming.  At the end of this hour, we will only be waiting on polls to close in ten states.

Arizona is one of the two big states closing this hour.  While the easiest way for Kamala Harris to win the election is by sweeping the northern blue belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), winning in Arizona would allow Vice-President Harris to win if she loses Wisconsin.  At the Senate level, the unpredictable Kyrsten Sinema read the writing on the wall and decided to call it at one term.  Representative Ruben Gallego is favored to keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands but chief election denier Kari Lake will make it closer than it should be and will fight in court for the next three years if she does not win.  The Democrats are favored to keep the three seats that they currently hold in the House, but have fighting chances in three of the six seats held by Republicans.  The first district is a toss-up district (R+1) in which the Democrats have a well-funded challenger.  But we have seen this story before and Representative David Schweikert always seems to find a way to survive.  The second district is a little more of a longshot as it is a lean Republican district (R+6).   While the Democratic candidate has enough funding to run a strong campaign, unlike the first district, Republican Eli Crane has more money than his opponent.  The second is only likely to fall in a Democratic wave.  The last close district in Arizona in the sixth district.  Representative Juan Ciscomani narrowly won in 2022 and is facing a rematch this year.  The fundraising total for both candidates is approximately even. Continue Reading...

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August 20 Primaries — Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming

By tmess2 | Published August 17, 2024

As we conclude the August primaries (there are runoffs next week in Oklahoma, but nothing above the state legislative level), the main focus will be on Florida.  Yes there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming, but they will have little impact on November.

In Alaska, the only statewide or Congressional primary is for the one house seat.  However, Alaska uses  a top four primary.  Barring a major upset, the top three are all but set.  Democratic Representative Mary Peltola might lose in November, but she will get well beyond the 20% needed to be assured of a spot in the top four.  The top two Republicans are two-time third-placed candidate Nick Begich and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom.  It is possible that whomever of these two gets fewer votes might only end up in the mid to high teens.  If there were five strong candidates, that might be fatal to making the top four.  But there aren’t five strong candidates and a number in the mid-teens will probably be good enough for a top four finish.  Beyond those three, nobody has raised significant funds.  Somebody will do good enough to finish four and make the general, and that somebody might get some funds to run a general election campaign.  But that candidate is unlikely to get enough votes in November to avoid being the first candidate out in ranked-choice voting.

In Wyoming, there will be primaries on the Republican side for both the Senate and the House.  One of the two challengers in the Senate has raised a significant amount of money, but there is no indication that there is significant grassroots opposition to either incumbent.  My expectation is that both incumbents will have comfortable wins on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms — Preview (Part 3)

By tmess2 | Published November 2, 2022

By the time that polls close in Arkansas at 7:30 p.m. Central ST, we should be starting to get votes from the early states, but most of the key races will still be classified as “too early to call.”  Arkansas has become so red over the past two decades that none of the races are likely to be close.  The big races will be the ballot issue.  From the right is a proposition to require supermajorities for propositions in future elections and a provision enshrining a version of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act in the Arkansas Constitution.  As we have seen at the federal level, this Free Exercise Clause on steroids will cause significant problems in Arkansas as everything will become somebody’s religious belief.  Arkansas will also vote on legalizing marijuana.

At 8:00 p.m. CST, polls will close in the remaining parts of Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas (with those races covered in Part 2 of the preview).    Polls will close for the entire state in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Arizona will feature several key races.  At the state office level, Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State are all open seats.  The Republicans have nominated Trumpist candidates for these positions who refuse to commit to recognizing the election results in 2024.   Particularly for governor, they have nominated a media celebrity who is not qualified.  But these races are currently too close to call.  For Senate, the Republicans have also nominated an extremist.  It looks like Senator Mark Kelly will hold onto the seat, but the seat is probably the third most likely pickup for the Republicans after Nevada and Georgia.   If the Republicans have a good night, that seat could flip. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 3 (9 PM to 10 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 29, 2020

As we noted in the previous two posts, a key part of the night will be how fast votes are counted and, in particular, what share of early and mail-in votes are released on election night and how many mail-in votes are potentially still in the mail and eligible to be counted.   There is also the issue of how long the lines were — especially in urban precincts — which could delay the count of votes cast on election day.  At this point in time, we should have projections from Kentucky and Indiana and the bluer and redder states from the 7 PM EST hour.  The question during this hour is whether we start getting projections from some of the swingier states with 7 PM closing times like Florida and Georgia have been called, and, if so, in which direction.

During this hour, nine states will close across the entire state and the remainder of the polls will close in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  South Dakota is unlikely to be close for any race, and the majority of Kansas and Texas close at 8 PM  EST.  What to look for in Michigan, Texas, and Kansas is addressed in Part Two.  Besides these partial closures, we have full closures in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wyoming.

Louisiana is a weird state in that there are no party primaries.  Everybody runs on the general election ballot, but it takes a majority to be elected.  While none of the races are expected to flip, there is always the chance that the sheer number of candidates on the ballot could result in a run-off.  Of course, some of these run-offs will feature two Republicans (or, in the one district that the Democrats hold, two Democrats).  Wyoming also features no close contests and should be an early call across the board. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Wyoming

By tmess2 | Published April 8, 2020

While waiting for the end of voting and results out of Wisconsin and Alaska, the next state up is Wyoming.  Wyoming was originally supposed to be a caucus state (with the caucuses to be held on April 4 with absentee votes included).  In light of COVID 19, the Wyoming Democratic Party has cancelled the in-person county caucuses/conventions and will be using a mail-in ballot (transforming the caucus into a party-run primary).

Because a substantial number of votes have already been cast (similar to the situation in Ohio), this primary will only be partially impacted by the decision of Senator Sanders to suspend his campaign.  Depending on the results in Wyoming and Ohio (which was already covered in the post on the March 17 primaries), we may or may not have further posts about the May and June states.  (if Biden wins Wisconsin, Alaska, Wyoming, and Ohio comfortably, I will probably not be doing any further delegate math posts as the exact count from the remaining states will not have much significance.)

As with Alaska, Wyoming will be using ranked-choice voting.  Thus, the final count will only include viable candidates meaning that there is no difference between total votes and qualified votes.  The ballots must be received by April 17.  The Wyoming delegate selection plan is ambiguous as to whether ranked choice voting is done on the county level (with state convention delegates being used to allocate the national delegates) or on the state level (with the popular vote being used to allocate the national convention delegates).  And the Wyoming Democratic Party has not announced a time when they will release the results from the mail-in ballots. Continue Reading...

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Ranked Choice Voting and the Primaries

By tmess2 | Published December 29, 2019

As the year comes to a close, we are approximately five weeks from the first votes of the 2020 election.  This post is to highlight one of the new features of this election — that several states will be using ranked choice voting.  (As described further below, Nevada will be using ranked-choice voting to allow early voters to participate in the caucuses.   Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming will be using ranked-choice voting in a party-run primary.  Maine will be using ranked-choice voting in a state-run primary.)

In the past, we have had something similar to ranked choice voting in some of the caucus states.  Typically, many of the caucus states allow attendees to realign after the first vote if their preferred candidate does not receive enough votes to qualify for a delegate.  Of course, when this process occurs at a caucus, the attendees have some idea of where the candidates currently stand and have the ability to negotiate delegate slots in exchange for moving as a bloc.  (Even at the handful of remaining caucus, the ability to make deals will be greatly reduced.  In the past, it was possible — for example — for Richardson supporters to move to Edwards in exchange for a pledge that one of the delegate slots would go to a Richardson supporter who would be a free agent at the county convention.  Under the new rules, the national delegate allocations are locked after the precinct convention significantly reducing the value of such delegate deals.)

Ranked choice voting requires voters to decide in advance whom they would support if their candidate is not viable.  For the most part, there has not been large support for moving to ranked choice voting in general elections in this country.  For a variety of reasons, the two major parties are more dominant in the U.S. than in most other countries.  (For example, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia all held parliamentary elections last year.  In those elections, the two main parties had a combined vote total of 67-76% of the vote.  By contrast, in the 2018 house elections, the two main parties had over 98% of the vote.  Even at the low point of the 1992 election, the two main parties combined for over 80% of the vote.)  The absence of significant votes for third-party candidates means that — most of the time — the winning candidate in U.S. elections gets a majority of the vote in their district.  (Again for comparison, in the 2019 elections abroad, the winning candidate only had a plurality in about one-third of the districts in the United Kingdom, and about two-thirds of the districts in Canada and Australia.  By contrast, combining the House, the Senate, and state-wide races, the winning candidate in the 2018 elections in the U.S. only had a plurality in 28 contests — less than five percent of the races. ) Continue Reading...

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Delegate Selection Plans — Wyoming and Update

By tmess2 | Published April 13, 2019

As more delegate selection plans are posted on-line, we have two states that have confirmed that they are switching from a caucus to a state-run primary.  The first is Minnesota.  Previously, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party had informed the Minnesota Secretary of State that it would be participating in the state-run primary, but we now have the draft plan which bases delegate allocation on the results of the primary.  The other state is Washington.  When we looked at the draft plan for Washington last month, the Washington Democrats had submitted two plans — one based on the caucus and one based on the primary.    Since then, the state of Washington finalized the scheduling of the primary for March (moving it up from May) and, at last weekend’s state committee meeting, the Washington Democrats opted for the primary-based plan.

With these two changes, we were down to a handful of states.  Yesterday, Wyoming released their draft plan for 2020.  Wyoming is keeping with a caucus system using, as in the past, a county caucus as the first step.  While there is not a specific set date in the plan, it does indicate an intent to hold the county caucuses on a weekend in March which would be earlier than the mid-April date from 2016.  To meet the goals of making access to the caucuses easier for voters, Wyoming is tentatively calling for allowing those who are unable to attend the county caucuses to participate by submitting a “surrogate affidavit.”  The exact details of how this will work is still being discussed and is not clear from the current draft.  (The name suggests a proxy vote, but my hunch is that — either at the final plan approved by the state or the final plan as amended in response to the national Rules and By-laws committee requests — it will be more like a typical absentee ballot.) 

The Wyoming plan uses the preference vote at the county caucuses to elect state convention delegates.  It uses a separate preference vote at the state convention to allocate the national convention delegates.  This part of the plan is clearly contrary to the national party rules.  In relevant part, Rule 2.K.5 requires that the delegate allocation be locked in based on the final preference vote at the first determining step.  In Wyoming’s plan, the first determining step is the county caucuses.   As such, assuming that Wyoming does not correct this part of the plan in the final draft, it is likely that the Rules and By-laws Committee will require a change prior to approving Wyoming’s plan.  Given what the other states are doing, Wyoming will probably be given the option of using either the raw vote totals (which they have used in the past) or the state convention delegates won.  As noted in previous posts, using state convention delegates won eliminate the effect of high turnout in some parts of the state but can also penalize candidates who are get just over 15% of the raw vote state-wide (as those candidates are likely to miss the threshold in some of the counties converting 13% of the vote in those counties into 0% of the delegates potentially causing the candidate to slip beneath 15% if the delegates won state-wide).  Continue Reading...

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2018 Mid-term Election — Rocky Mountains

By tmess2 | Published October 30, 2018

While it’s not an exact East-West line, the Rocky Mountain region has seen a lot of change in recent years.  While not the same in every state, the southern part of the region has trended a little more toward the Democrats while the northern part has, maybe, gotten even redder.

In Montana, we have a weird combination of races.  For Senate, even with President Trump firing with both barrels due to Senator Tester shooting down Trump’s misguided cronyism at the Department of Veteran’s Affair, Senator Tester seems to have a somewhat comfortable lead in the Senate race.  On the other hand, WWE-wannabe Greg Gianforte seems to be holding on (by a less comfortable margin) in the U.S. House race.

In Wyoming, the Democrats really have very little chance at picking up any of the races.  A successful outcome would be holding the Republicans beneath 55% in any of the three main races.

Colorado is moving from purple to lean Democrat.  It looks like Jared Polis has a solid lead in the race for governor.  Right now, the Republicans have four of the seven house seats.  It looks like the Democrats are likely to gain at least one seat (Sixth District) and are only slight underdogs to gain a second seat (Third District).

New Mexico like Colorado is gradually becoming blue.  The mid-term environment allowed the Republicans to win the race for Governor in 2010 and 2014, but, with an open seat this time, it looks very likely to be a Democratic pick-up.  And with two Congressmen running for governor, the Democrats are solid favorites to hold their two seats and a very narrow underdog to sweep the state and pick-up the Republicans only seat.

Arizona is the big question mark of the election.  Once the bastion of traditional conservatism, the Republican Party has had to try to skirt the fence between traditional Republicanism and the new far right nationalism represented by Trump.  This impossible task has created an open Senate seat when Jeff Flake saw the tea leaves on the wall for the Republican primary.  While not a sure thing (as the Republicans are throwing every piece of dirt along with the kitchen sink), Arizona is the best opportunity right now for the Democrats to gain a Senate seat.  On the other hand, the incumbent Governor seems to have threaded the needle and should win re-election barring a very strong Hispanic turnout.  Arizona’s House delegation is currently 5-4 in favor of the Republicans.  However, the Democrats are likely to flip that by picking up the Second District.  There are two longer shots.  The interesting story in Arizona is the Fourth District where the Republican candidate is so outrageous that his own family has cut ads against him.  Unfortunately, that district is so red that Satan himself could win running as a Republican.

Moving north, Utah is the home of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, and the church has a large influence over state politics.  The Mormons have had some trouble with Trump’s unrepentant bigotry and sexism.  (Not that the Church itself has not had a history of having trouble with those issues, but it has made effort to improve its language if not its practices.)  It looks like the Republicans will be sending Mitt Romney to the Senate to pester Trump.  In the House, the Republicans drew the district lines to split the Democratic strength in the Salt Lake City area into two districts.  Even with lines favoring Republicans, the Democrats are slight favorites to take the Fourth District back (which would give them a grand total of one seat in Utah).

Everything is on the line in Nevada.  In the Summer of 2017, Senator Dean Heller looked like the most vulnerable Senate Republican.  Unlike Senator Flake, Senator Heller managed to have state leaders convince potential primary challengers to find another race.  Nevada is really two states.  You have three districts in the southern half of the state (all taking in part of the Las Vegas area) and one district covering the northern half of the state.  The Democrats currently control all three of the Las Vegas area seats (some by narrow margins) and the Republicans dominate the rest of the state.  The Congressional delegation seems likely to stay the same.  On the other hand, both of the state-wide races are too close to call with Republicans having a narrow lead.  Again, this race is likely to come down to turnout.  If the hotel unions in Las Vegas can get their members to vote, Democrats might sweep at the state level.  If not, the Republicans will likely escape by the skin of their teeth.  The Senate race is the second best chance for a Democratic gain, and it is hard to see how we get to 51 without winning Nevada.  It’s possible, just not likely.

Finally, there is Idaho.  Two House seats and the Governor’s race.  All currently held by Republicans.  Getting to 40% in any of the races would be a moral victory for Democrats.

Looking at referendums, Arizona has two interesting referendums that are likely to boost turnout on both sides.  On the one hand, there is a proposal to prevent future tax hikes on services.  On the other hand, there is a proposal to require Arizona to have renewable energy represent 50% of the state’s energy by 2030.   Colorado has a slew of referendums including changes to campaign finance law, establishing redistricting commissions, and limits on fracking.  Idaho does have a Medicaid expansion proposition as does Montana.  Montana also has a proposal to limit who can collect ballots.  (I don’t know if this is a problem in Montana, but it is in some parts of the country where some political organizations pressure voters to apply for and mail in absentee ballots for the organization’s candidates.)  Nevada has a renewable energy proposition as well as a motor voter proposal.  Utah has a trifecta of progressive proposals — Medicaid expansion, medical marijuana, and a redistricting commission.

In short, this region has only a handful of Democratic pick-up opportunities in the House — two probable and maybe two or three others.  On the other hand, it does have two potential pick-ups in Governor races, and three key Senate races with a potential net gain of two Senate seats for the Democrats which are key to the Democrat’s chance at winning control of the Senate.

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