2022 Primary Season Part 2

Tuesday marks the unofficial start of the second part of primary season.  Problems caused by redistricting have altered the normal calendar. with many states going out of their usual order.  Normally, there is a good break between the Spring primaries (typically ending by mid-June) and the Summer primaries (typically starting in early August).

Maryland which starts off the Summer primaries this week is a good example of that.  It was supposed to be at the tail end of the Spring primaries.  Instead, it got moved back three weeks.  It and the postponed state runoffs in North Carolina the following week are serving as a bridge between what is typically a five to six week break between the two halves.

The regularly scheduled primaries start the following week with Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington on Tuesday (August 2) and Tennessee on Thursday (August 4).  Arizona, Michigan, and Missouri all have races on their ballots which are best described as total chaos on the Republican side.  Michigan may be in the worst shape as several of their strongest candidates for Governor failed to make the ballot leaving a real clown car of a race.  The results from these three states will help frame the big question on the Republican side for this fall — how off the rails full on Trumpist will the Republican candidates be this fall.  The Democrats in same of these early states have our typical establishment vs. the Squad vs. Bernie Sanders vs. working class populism battles.  That struggle will also help define what the issues will be in the fall. Continue Reading...

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GOP panel recommends Milwaukee to host 2024 convention

Looks like Milwaukee will be the host of back-to-back conventions from different parties:

“Today, the Site Selection Committee voted to recommend Milwaukee to host the 2024 Republican National Convention and it is a testament to the forthright and professional behavior embraced by Milwaukee’s city leaders throughout the process. A final decision will be made by Chairwoman [Ronna] McDaniel and the full RNC in the coming weeks.” RNC senior adviser Richard Walters said in a statement.

Milwaukee beat out Nashville in Friday’s selection vote. Nashville’s bid to host the convention hit a roadblock last Tuesday when two city council members pulled the draft agreement to host the convention from the council’s agenda at the last minute.

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The News from London

The U.S. system is somewhat unique in that we have regularly scheduled elections with a regularly scheduled process for choosing candidates, mostly by means of elections open to most voters.  Other countries do things differently.  Many countries are parliamentary systems with the Prime Minister being a hybrid of the U.S. President (in terms of power), the U.S. Speaker of the House (in terms of being officially chosen by the whole House and removable by the whole House), and Majority Leader of the Senate (in terms of being removable by the majority of the majority party).

In recent weeks, the Trumpish Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, has been bogged down by scandals.  Last week, the heat got too high for many members of the Conservative Party, and an open revolt forced Boris Johnson to agree to resign.  Under the British system, this means that the Conservative Party has to choose a new leader who will then become Prime Minister.

There are no formal rules for this type of leadership election and, when this situation occurs, it falls to the Conservatives in Parliament to draft the rules that will apply to this election.  This time, they have chosen a rather expedited process.  The rules were announced just yesterday. Continue Reading...

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Four cities present bids for 2024 Dem convention

Last month Chicago, New York, Houston and Atlanta made their case to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention:

Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot pitched top Democratic National Committee officials on Friday about Chicago’s bid to host the 2024 Democratic convention, bringing boxes of Chicago goodies and – in a show of how serious this bid is – themselves.

In separate presentations, the DNC officials – including DNC Chair Jamie Harrison, who attended via video, and new DNC senior adviser Cedric Richmond, a former top official in the Biden White House – Chicago, New York, Houston and Atlanta representatives made their cases to host the 2024 convention. Continue Reading...

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The Most Dangerous Branch — End of Term Reflections

In the Federalist Papers, the Judiciary was called the “Least Dangerous Branch.”  The thought was that the Supreme Court relied on the other branches to follow through on court orders.  However, in our legal system, court orders are usually obeyed.  And, between gerrymandering, filibusters, and the equality of the states in the Senate, it is very hard to get the types of majorities that allow real change in the “political” branches.  Courts, however, simply require a majority to act.  And the relentless campaign of the far right has left us with a Supreme Court that borders on being as political as any other branch of government.  That is not to say that every decision is political.  There are lots of legal issues that are not partisan in nature.  And there are some issues that split conservatives.  However, on this Court, when there is a clear partisan divide over an issue, the result is a foregone conclusion regardless of what the true facts and precedent dictate.    The last week of the term gave us three cases in which Senator Mitch McConnell’s abuse of Senate rules resulted in rulings that we would not have gotten in 2015.

The first case is Kennedy v. Bremerton School District.  What makes this case significant is that this case is ultimately about what version of the facts one chooses to belief.  The normal rule is that appellate courts take the facts as found by the lower courts or in the light most favorable to the lower court.  In this case, however, a major conflict between the two opinions is their characterization of the facts.  The majority sees the practice of the petitioner — a public high school coach kneeling on the football field at the end or the game — as a private act of worship.  The dissent (and the lower courts) saw the act as a public display by a government employee in the course of his employment.  The normal practice when the case is this fact-dependent and the facts are unclear is to “dismiss as improvidently granted.”  Instead, the majority picks and chooses the disputed evidence that supports the legal rules that it wishes to establish notwithstanding compelling evidence supporting a contrary reading of what happened.  In doing so, the Supreme Court announces that the Lemon test for the Establishment Clause has been discarded (as well as other tests for an Establishment Clause violation) and replaced by (wait for it) a historical analysis of what would have been considered an establishment of religion.  It should shock nobody that this approach means that very little will be a violation of the Establishment Clause.  With the Establishment Clause neutered, that just leaves the Free Exercise Clause and the Free Speech Clause.  Given the fact that the Supreme Court has greatly expanded the impact of these two clauses, the end result for the forces of protecting the rights of Christian Theocrats over the rights of everybody else is a foregone conclusion.

The second case Oklahoma v. Castro=Huerta.  This case involves criminal jurisdiction on tribal lands in Oklahoma.  Several years ago, in a 5-4 decision (with Justice Ginsburg) on the Supreme Court, Justice Gorsuch and the four liberal justices ruled that no treaty or act by Congress ever formally disestablished the native reservations in Eastern Oklahoma even as non-Natives bought the land on the reservation.  As such, the lands were still legally part of those reservations.  Under federal statute, crimes by natives against natives on reservations have to be tried in tribal court or federal court (depending on the offense).  The new case involved crimes against natives by non-natives.  With Justice Barrett instead of Justice Ginsburg, there were five votes against tribal authority and in favor of state authority.  As such, the majority — thanks to a rushed confirmation by Senator McConnell in the fall of 2020 — found that Oklahoma also had the authority to try such cases in state court.   Now, both this decision and the earlier decision are based on statutes.  In theory, Congress could fix the laws related to the relationship between tribal authority and state authority to fix the issues brought out by cases (or actually appropriate the money to hire enough prosecutors, public defenders, and judges to handle a large number of cases on tribal lands in Oklahoma), but the deadlock in Congress makes this highly unlikely. Continue Reading...

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Missouri Senate Primary 2022

We are about five weeks out from the August 2 primary in Missouri.  With Roy Blunt deciding that it is time to move on, there are multiple candidates in both party’s primary.  While Missouri has been gradually moving to the right, there is a chance that Democrats could pull out a win, but a lot depends on what happens on August 2.

To some degree, the Republican primary in Missouri is an echo of what we have seen in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  With a large number of candidates and no clear favorite, we are looking at the potential for a very close race which in turn means that Donald Trump could very easily impact the result by putting his thumb on the scale (as opposed to the recent primary in Alabama where Trump had little noticeable impact on the race when he first endorsed Mo Brooks, less impact when he rescinded that endorsement, and no impact when he decided to endorse Kate Britt at the last second to get a cheap win for his endorsement scorecard).

There are twenty-one people running for the Republican nomination.  For the purposes of the Trump endorsement race, there are three groups of candidates:  the field, the chase pack, and the lead pack.  The field consists of fifteen candidates with no state-wide name recognition and no significant resources.  Each of these candidates would be lucky to get 2-3% of the vote.  But each vote for the field is a vote that is not going to the top six candidates. Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Court — Faux Originalism and the Reactionary Ascendency

This is a hard week to post about.  There were three opinion days this week.  And each one featured a new decision that ripped at the fabric of modern society and featured a rewriting of history in the service of originalism to allow the reactionary members of the court to push through an agenda that lacks electoral support based on a misreading of the Constitution.

Tuesday started off the week with Carson vs. Makinthe Maine school voucher case.   Traditionally, there have been two prongs to the Free Exercise Clause — one prong involves the power to follow one’s religious beliefs without penalty and the other prong involves discrimination based on religion.  Posed against the Free Exercise Clause is the Establishment Clause which forbids the government from establishing an official religion or religions.  Traditionally, the big fights have been in the “no penalty” prong.

On the penalizing religion prong, the battle has always been the reasonableness of the proposed accommodations measured against the significance of the government interest.  And in the late 1980s, after one of the low points of religious freedom in which Justice Scalia basically limited this prong to the right to have beliefs without penalty for those beliefs (but no right to act on those beliefs), Congress overreacted by enacting the Religious Freedom Restoration Act which went to the other extreme.  The RFRA and the Free Exercise Clause are on the verge of being interpreted as allowing people to claim religious exemptions from civil rights laws.  And we are likely to see another case in this prong later this week allowing a coach at a public school to pray publicly while on the job at a school function. Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court Update

The last week was both busy and quiet on the Supreme Court front.  The Supreme Court handed down eleven decisions reducing the number of pending cases to eighteen with two weeks to go.  Only two of the cases were medium big, and the really big cases will be decided in the last two weeks.  With the Juneteenth holiday, the Supreme Court will be releasing opinions tomorrow (Tuesday) and Thursday.  For the last week of June, Monday will be an opinion day.  Depending on how many opinions are left after June 27, there will probably be additional opinions on June 29 and, maybe, June 30.  Expect Dodds and New York State Rifle to come the week of June 27.

This week, the two big decisions were in American Hospital Association v. Becerra and Arizona v. City and County of San Francisco.  Both of these are bigger for what they did not say than for what they actually held.

American Hospital Association involves the rules for hospital reimbursements for Medicare.  For years, conservatives have been challenging a judge-made rule (Chevron deference) which dictates that courts should uphold reasonable rules implemented by administrative agencies based on a reasonable interpretation of statutes.  So far, the U.S. Supreme Court has not officially overruled Chevron.  Instead, they are whittling it away through decisions like American Hospital Association.  The courts are doing this by narrowing the field of what is a reasonable interpretation of statutes. Continue Reading...

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Lessons From the January 6 Committee

Looking at the highlights from the January 6 Commitee hearing this week, there were two key takeaways from this week hearings — both related to the vote counting process.

First, as anybody who has been involved with campaign at any level knows, votes are not instantly reported at the same time.  Instead, election results roll in as precincts turn in their results and counties count absentee and “federal” ballots (ballots case by military and overseas voters that just cover federal and statewide elections).   More importantly, results by precinct and by county are not random — either in timing or in the vote counts.  There is a regular patten by which results are reported and an expected result by precinct and county.

To use my home county for an example, it is a small county that typically has between 12,000 and 15,000 votes.  While the exact number of precincts has changed, it has always been between 15 and 20 precincts.  In the years that I have lived, there have been changes.  We have gone from a central counting process in which the ballot boxes in each precinct were just ballot boxes and the counting machine was in the courthouse to a precinct counting process in which the ballot boxes are also counting machines and the central counting part of the process is simply downloading the results from each precinct and adding the results together.  This change has speeded up the process (as the county election authority no longer has to run 15,000 ballots through the counting machine and reset the machine for each precinct) and we typically have the full results by 8:30 p.m. (ninety minutes after the polls close) rather than 11:00 p.m.  Additionally, the results are posted on-line as soon as the printout of a precinct’s result can be scanned and uploaded thereby eliminating the need to sit around the courthouse waiting for a copy of the printouts.  But what hasn’t changed is that there is a rough sequence in which the precincts are reported.  In most elections, the first precincts to report are the smaller towns close to the county seat (in the north central part of the county).  Those precincts get to the courthouse first because they are only 5-10 minutes away from the courthouse, and — given their small size — they tend to have few people in line at 7 p.m. and can quickly get to the process of closing the precinct and packing up the ballots and counting device to take to the courthouse.  On the other hand, the five large precincts in the southeast and southwest of the courthouse tend to be the last ones to get to the courthouse as they have the furthest to go and tend to have lines at 7 p.m. (and thus take longer to close as the closing process does not begin until the last person has voted).  In short, while the exact sequence may change some from election to election (as the exact time when the election judges get to the courthouse depends on how long the lines are). Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court — End of Term Preview 2022

Normally, by this time of the year, the Supreme Court term is coming into focus.  With three weeks to go, typically, there is one or two cases left from the Fall.   While there are always question marks, it is possible to try to figure out results in the key case by who is in the running for getting the remaining opinions from a month.

This year is different.  There are still 29 opinions outstanding out of 62 cases.  While there have been years with more opinions outstanding heading into the last three weeks, those years were back when the Supreme Court was hearing a lot more cases per year.

To date, almost all of the opinions have been in cases that (other than the parties) mostly interested those practicing in that field.  The biggest attention getting case was the decision reinstating (at least for now) the death penalty against the surviving Boston Marathon bomber.  The legally biggest case of the year so far also came from Boston in a Free Exercise/Free Speech case involving Boston’s refusal to let a Christian group use one of the city’s flagpoles in connection with an event even though it routinely gave such permission to nonreligious groups.  That decision may be an indicator of the likely result in some of the remaining cases, but it was merely a continuation of the recent trend in Free Exercise cases. Continue Reading...

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