Mythbuster 101

The Republican Party likes its myths.  Tell a nice anecdotal story (which doesn’t even have to be true), pretend that it expresses a universal truth, and watch it take root in the base so that there is no pressure to fix what is really broken.

Myth #1 — Gun control rules in Democratic cities have not prevented those cities from having high homicide rates.  This one is less myth than simple distortion.  First, most larger cities have Democratic mayors.  So it’s hard to find Republican-controlled cities for comparison.  Second, it’s universally true (not just an American fact) that increased population (and increased population density) means more crime.  When you look at crime rates and violent crime rates, the cities with gun control actually fare relatively well.  Third, in the U,S, legal system, it is very easy to evade city restrictions.  You just need to travel to the suburbs  to get your gun.  And the open borders mean that there is no check at the city line to prevent the importation of guns into the  city.  Lastly, the penalties for violating a city ordinance are relatively minor.  In short, local gun control ordinances appear to have some effect, but such ordinances are no substitute for federal legislation.

Of course, passing anything through Congress is hard.  One proposal that I have seen that might bear some fruit is the concept of breaking down the current proposals into separate bills.  When you have a complex bill, it is easy for the Members from the Party of GnOP to say they are voting no based on one provision.  If you make them vote on each proposal separately, they will have to take a stand on each proposal rather than relying on the most controversial provision to justify killing the bill.  While the Democrats probably have the votes in the House to pass the full program, they don’t have the votes in the Senate.  Making forty-one Republicans have to vote against each of twenty or thirty proposals that have the support of 70% of the American voters might just move the needle in some swing states and districts. Continue Reading...

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Milwaukee bid for 2024 GOP Convention hits roadbumps

A couple of recent stories out of Milwaukee are hinting at possible problems for the front-runner’s bid to host the 2024 Republican National Convention.

First, and not surprisingly, liberal groups are pressuring the city to withdraw its bid:

Five left-leaning community and labor groups on Tuesday called for Milwaukee leaders to reject the 2024 Republican National Convention that Mayor Cavalier Johnson has been working to win. Continue Reading...

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Chicago, New York, Houston and Atlanta bid for 2024 Democratic Convention

Four cities are vying to host the 2020 Dem convention:

Four cities submitted bids to host the 2024 Democratic convention by Friday’s deadline, with Chicago’s front runner status challenged by the emergence of New York City’s bid.

  Continue Reading...

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Australia Election

As more states are considering moving to some form of ranked-choice voting, this weekend is a chance to look at the original home of ranked-choice voting — Australia.  There are certain differences between how ranked choice voting works in Australia and how it is likely to work in the U.S.

The big difference between the two systems is that, in elections in which Australia uses ranked-choice voting, there are only two election contests — each of which has a separate ballot.  Because there is only one race on each ballot.  There is no need for trusting computer programs to accurately read the preferences and allocate them for the House of Representatives.  (The Senate uses single transferrable vote which is more complicated and does require computer assistance.)

Second, Australia does not have party primaries.  Candidates are chosen by party committees (which can sometimes backfire when the national party forces a candidate on the local party). and it is not difficult for small parties to get on the ballot.  In most of the states using ranked choice, they either have ranked choice for party primaries or have a “top four” primary with ranked choice reserved for the general election. Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Leak

Last night an unprecedented leak revealed an unprecedented bombshell.

Most courts are rather tight-lipped about cases that have been heard but not decided.  Judges and the support staff that works for them understand that, for multiple reasons, they should not talk about a decision until it is officially released.

Now, no system is perfect, and periodically, there are leaks about the internal operations of the court.  But, to the best of my knowledge, there has never been a leak of a draft opinion prior to the official release of the official opinion. Continue Reading...

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The 2022 Elections: Revenge of the Trumpists

We are on the eve of the start of the first big segment of the primary season for the 2022 election.  Texas had its primary back in March, but primary season really starts this Tuesday with primaries in Ohio and and Indiana.

Including the Texas run-off, there are primaries or run=offs set for every week between now and June 28 other than the week of Memorial Day.  During that period, a grand total of thirty states will have primaries or run-offs (with some having both).  There is normally a longer breaker between the Spring primaries and the late Summer/early fall round of primaries.  But due to postponed election dates, Maryland will have its primary in mid-July and North Carolina will have its run-off on July 5 or July 26, depending on the offices which require a run-off.  Phase two of the primary season begins on August 2 and runs through September 13.

Mid-term elections are tough for the party in power.   The public always want the big problems solved instantly.  And big problems are typically years in the making and will require years to solve.  Making things worse, the party that wins an election always tries to pass what their primary voters want (which is not the same as what general election voters want) but ends up with in-fighting between the various factions of the party.  It has been a long time since any party has won by a big enough margin to be able to pass legislation despite those differences. Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Court this Week — Puerto Rico and Signs

We are nearing the turn for home of the current Supreme Court term.  This upcoming week is the last week of arguments for the term.  After the upcoming Friday conference, the Supreme Court will take its last two-week recess which will be followed by several weeks of issuing opinions until all of the opinions are done.

Thursday saw the first large opinion dump from the Supreme Court.  This post will focus on the two with the most political significance.

First up is the latest on Puerto Rico.  The U.S. Constitution implicitly assumes that territorial status is temporary with Congress having ultimate control over the territory and the laws that apply in the territory until it can become a state.  On the other hand, once a territory becomes a state, it has equal status to other states. Continue Reading...

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Dems request bids to host 2024 convention

Eight cities were invited to submit bids:

Democratic leaders on Friday asked eight cities, including Chicago, Atlanta and Houston, to submit bids to host the 2024 Democratic nominating convention, according to a party official familiar with the request.

The formal call for proposals from the Democratic National Committee launches a quadrennial process that can bring nearly 5,000 delegates and as many as 45,000 other people to a host city for a four-night extravaganza, with dozens of sideline events and parties, aimed at unifying the country behind a presidential nominee. Continue Reading...

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GOP considering choosing 2028 convention site this year

Well, this would be a big change:

On Wednesday, Republican National Committee members unanimously voted to pass a new rule enabling the party to begin selecting its presidential convention sites six years in advance, leaving the door open for party officials to determine both the 2024 and 2028 convention locations this year. After that, the site reveal for the 2032 nominating convention would be made in 2026.
“Giving our Site Selection Committee the opportunity to start looking at cities seven years ahead of Convention is a smart business decision that will ensure the best possible event as our delegates select the Republican-nominee for President,” RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement to CNN.

Two years in advance to six years in advance is a big jump.  The other main issue? When a party controls the White House (in a first term, at least), where to hold the convention is really a decision for the White House to make, not the national committee.  Choosing the convention site 6 years in advance removes a first term president’s team from having any input to the decision.  But, it is true that cities fill up their available dates far in the future, and the parties need to remove any obstacles to cities wanting to bid for conventions. It will be very interesting to see how this goes.

Nashville and Milwaukee remain the two finalists to host the 2024 GOP Convention. A decision is expected later this year.

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French Election — Round 1

Continuing the international politics theme from last week, this Sunday is the first phase of the French presidential election.  It’s only the first phase for two reasons.  First, France uses a runoff system (the runoff will be in two weeks).  Second, France has so many political parties that there is no chance of anybody getting a majority in the first round.  For the presidential election, there will be twelve candidates on the ballots.

Unlike in Australia, where the competition is mainly between a center-left party and a center-right party with minimal differences on international issues, there is a wide range of views of the role of France in international politics and Vlad the Destroyer’s minions have certainly been trying to influence the chances of the candidates with disinformation campaigns.

While he is not certain to win the run-off in two weeks, most observers expect the incumbent President, Emmanuel Macron, to make the run-off.    He has led every poll with about 25-30% support.  In terms of international issues, Macron sits firmly in the camp that has dominated France for the past fifty years — for lack of a better name, strong France internationalism.  The basic gist of French foreign policy is that France is an active participant in working with other major democracies to build an international consensus on issues, but France certainly looks out for its own interests in those negotiations and is willing to say no to its allies or go it alone when it has to. Continue Reading...

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