Wednesday DNC Schedule

By Matt | Published August 21, 2024

Bill Clinton and Tim Walz. Pelosi and Shapiro. They will all be hard-pressed to top the Obama speeches last night:

5:30 PM

Call to Order Continue Reading...

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Tuesday DNC Schedule

By Matt | Published August 20, 2024

It’s Obama-time:

Program Schedule: Democratic National Convention Night 2

“A Bold Vision for America’s Future” Continue Reading...

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Monday DNC Schedule

By Matt | Published August 19, 2024

First the highlights. The complete schedule follows:

5:15 PM – 10:15 PM

Call to Order Continue Reading...

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2024 Democratic Convention starts tomorrow

By Matt | Published August 18, 2024

The latest news:

  • Convention programming will air live from the United Center in Chicago between 6:15-11 PM Eastern/5:15-10 PM Central on Monday, and 7-11 PM Eastern/6-10 PM Central for all other days. Monday’s theme is ‘For The People”.
  • You can watch a livestream of the convention on all platforms, including, get this, “DemConvention.com/watch“.  Wow! So close!  All they needed to do was ask for our domain. We would have gladly lent it out for the week!
  • The Pro-Palestinian protests are full steam ahead.
  • And the unofficial roll call will be held on Tuesday

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The DNC starts in two days!

By Matt | Published August 17, 2024

Here’s the latest news for the 2024 Democratic Convention which starts on Monday in Chicago:

Here’s a look inside the United Center:

  • Main Speaker List: Monday: Biden and Hillary Clinton. Tuesday: Obama. Wednesday: Bill Clinton and Walz. Harris will close it out on Thursday.
  • Here’s an excellent behind the scenes view on what its like under the podium of a democratic convention
  • While every delegate will still get a bag of coffee beans as a nod to a cup of “Joe,” the convention has had to do a quick pivot to Harris.
  • Can’t get a credential?  There’s a watch party being held at Soldier Field
  • And they’ve raised $95 million for the convention

 

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August 20 Primaries — Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming

By tmess2 | Published August 17, 2024

As we conclude the August primaries (there are runoffs next week in Oklahoma, but nothing above the state legislative level), the main focus will be on Florida.  Yes there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming, but they will have little impact on November.

In Alaska, the only statewide or Congressional primary is for the one house seat.  However, Alaska uses  a top four primary.  Barring a major upset, the top three are all but set.  Democratic Representative Mary Peltola might lose in November, but she will get well beyond the 20% needed to be assured of a spot in the top four.  The top two Republicans are two-time third-placed candidate Nick Begich and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom.  It is possible that whomever of these two gets fewer votes might only end up in the mid to high teens.  If there were five strong candidates, that might be fatal to making the top four.  But there aren’t five strong candidates and a number in the mid-teens will probably be good enough for a top four finish.  Beyond those three, nobody has raised significant funds.  Somebody will do good enough to finish four and make the general, and that somebody might get some funds to run a general election campaign.  But that candidate is unlikely to get enough votes in November to avoid being the first candidate out in ranked-choice voting.

In Wyoming, there will be primaries on the Republican side for both the Senate and the House.  One of the two challengers in the Senate has raised a significant amount of money, but there is no indication that there is significant grassroots opposition to either incumbent.  My expectation is that both incumbents will have comfortable wins on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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August 13 Primaries — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin

By tmess2 | Published August 11, 2024

As we are nearing the mid-way point of the summer primaries, there are four states with primaries during this upcoming week — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.  However, compared to some previous weeks, this week should be relatively low on drama.

Connecticut is one of those states that uses party conventions as a screening tool for the primary.   There are two ways to get on the primary ballot — getting enough votes at the party convention or getting enough signatures on a petition.  There are only two primaries on the ballot (at least above the state legislative level), both on the Republican side — one for U.S. Senate and one for the Fourth District.  However, neither of the Republican candidates for Senate are funded at anywhere near the level that would make them a viable general election candidate.  While the two candidates in the Fourth have some money, the Fourth District is solidly Democratic.  In other words, neither or these primaries will make much difference in November.

Minnesota has some primaries that might be significant. Continue Reading...

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And the Next Vice-President Is?

By tmess2 | Published August 4, 2024

Democrats have had to act on a very compressed schedule recently.  This compressed schedule is caused by two things:  1) The sudden withdrawal of Joe Biden from the race on July 21; and 2) Ohio Republicans.

On the second issue, for almost five decades now, the tradition has been that, in almost every election cycle, the party in the White House has held their convention between August 15 and the week after Labor Day.  Despite this tradition, some states (including Ohio) have set a deadline for certifying the presidential and vice-presidential candidates before the end of August.  Despite this nominal deadline, in every cycle, these states (having made whatever point they intended to make) grant a waiver to any party holding their convention after the deadline.  This year, however, Ohio waited to long to enact a statutory waiver which creates an ambiguous situation.  Ohio’s new law will push the deadline to after the Democratic convention, but that new law does not take effect until September 1.   The current law, however, has a deadline of August 7.  So, if the Democrats wait until after the convention, their certification will be untimely under current law and then, maybe, become timely under the new law.  But that would require hoping for courts to do the right thing in interpreting the law, and, despite the guarantees to the contrary by Republican officials in Ohio, it is as certain as the sun rising in the morning that some Republican would challenge any “late certification.”

As a result, the Democrats have been acting as if August 7 is still the deadline in Ohio.  Thus, the virtual roll call for President will be concluded by 6 p.m. on August 6.  And Vice-President Harris has until just before the close of business on August 7 to name her vice-presidential nominee.  While  normally, we would expect to see this pick made on the eve of the convention (in other words around August 14-16), the pick has to be made within the next seventy-two hours. Continue Reading...

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Primary Elections — Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Hawaii

By tmess2 | Published August 4, 2024

Another week, another set of primaries.  While the national media is focused on who will be the next Vice-President of the United States,  the results of these elections will determine what seats might be competitive in November, and, in some cases, the winner is all but certain to be holding office in January.  On Tuesday, there will be primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington.  On Saturday, there will be primaries in Hawaii.

In Kansas, Republican engaged in extreme gerrymandering.  The Republicans’ problem in drawing lines is that half of the state’s population is in a handful of counties in Eastern Kansas covering the western suburbs of Kansas City, the state capitol in Topeka, and the University of Kansas in Lawrence.  While not deep blue, this area is definitely bluer than the rest of the state.  Under the pre-2020 lines, the Second District was a lean Republican district and the Third District was a swing district with a slight edge for the Democrats.  To try to “fix” this, the Republicans in Kansas drew some weird lines to make the First District (western Kansas) and the Second District (Topeka and Lawrence) into a weird interlocking jigsaw puzzle which allowed moving some blue areas out of the Third District (K.C. suburbs) into the Second District while adding enough red areas into the Second District to make it redder. The impact was to make the Second District relatively safe while keeping the Third District competitive but slightly favorable to the Republicans.

During the past several cycles, the Second District has been something of a revolving door.  The candidate elected in 2018 was scandal plagued and lost the primary in 2020.  The candidate who won in 2020 got tired of the shenanigans in Washington after a mere four years and opted against seeking a third term. As a result, there are five candidates seeking the Republican nomination, three of whom are roughly equal in fundraising.  The two leading candidates appear to be Jeff Kahrs who serves on the staff of the current representative and appears to have the endorsement of what passes for the Republican establishment in Kansas and former state Attorney General and failed gubernatorial candidate Derek Schmidt who has the support of the Trump wing of the Kansas party. Continue Reading...

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Arizona and Tennessee Primaries

By tmess2 | Published July 27, 2024

After several weeks with no voting (other than a special election in New Jersey and some elections overseas), the primary season starts back up again on Tuesday with the Arizona primary followed by Tennessee on Thursday.

In Arizona, the key race is the Republican Primary featuring 100% insane Kari Lake against 90% insane Mark Lamb.  Despite the fact that Kari Lake has more that won out her welcome with swing voters, the Republican “establishment” seems to have unified behind her.  It’s been some time since there have been polls released in the race.  The last polls had Ms. Lake just short of 50% with a third candidate also on the race.  There were still enough undecideds that Sheriff Lamb could eek out the win, but most likely Ms. Lake will be the nominee.  And that is good news for the Democrats as Ms. Lake will spend half her time whining about how the 2022 governor’s race was “stolen” and how McCain Republicans are RINOs who need to get out of the party.  Those two tendencies will hurt both her and Donald Trump (who has the same tendencies except for substituting 2020 for 2022).

Moving to the Congressional elections, the First District (the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix is a swing district.  The incumbent Republican has token opposition, but the Democratic primary has six candidates, five of whom have raised over $1 million for the primary.  Not surprisingly, the latest polling shows nobody over 20% with one-third of the voters still undecided.  Basically, anybody could win the primary. Continue Reading...

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