Primary Elections — Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Hawaii

Another week, another set of primaries.  While the national media is focused on who will be the next Vice-President of the United States,  the results of these elections will determine what seats might be competitive in November, and, in some cases, the winner is all but certain to be holding office in January.  On Tuesday, there will be primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington.  On Saturday, there will be primaries in Hawaii.

In Kansas, Republican engaged in extreme gerrymandering.  The Republicans’ problem in drawing lines is that half of the state’s population is in a handful of counties in Eastern Kansas covering the western suburbs of Kansas City, the state capitol in Topeka, and the University of Kansas in Lawrence.  While not deep blue, this area is definitely bluer than the rest of the state.  Under the pre-2020 lines, the Second District was a lean Republican district and the Third District was a swing district with a slight edge for the Democrats.  To try to “fix” this, the Republicans in Kansas drew some weird lines to make the First District (western Kansas) and the Second District (Topeka and Lawrence) into a weird interlocking jigsaw puzzle which allowed moving some blue areas out of the Third District (K.C. suburbs) into the Second District while adding enough red areas into the Second District to make it redder. The impact was to make the Second District relatively safe while keeping the Third District competitive but slightly favorable to the Republicans.

During the past several cycles, the Second District has been something of a revolving door.  The candidate elected in 2018 was scandal plagued and lost the primary in 2020.  The candidate who won in 2020 got tired of the shenanigans in Washington after a mere four years and opted against seeking a third term. As a result, there are five candidates seeking the Republican nomination, three of whom are roughly equal in fundraising.  The two leading candidates appear to be Jeff Kahrs who serves on the staff of the current representative and appears to have the endorsement of what passes for the Republican establishment in Kansas and former state Attorney General and failed gubernatorial candidate Derek Schmidt who has the support of the Trump wing of the Kansas party. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections, Senate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Primary Elections — Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Hawaii

Arizona and Tennessee Primaries

After several weeks with no voting (other than a special election in New Jersey and some elections overseas), the primary season starts back up again on Tuesday with the Arizona primary followed by Tennessee on Thursday.

In Arizona, the key race is the Republican Primary featuring 100% insane Kari Lake against 90% insane Mark Lamb.  Despite the fact that Kari Lake has more that won out her welcome with swing voters, the Republican “establishment” seems to have unified behind her.  It’s been some time since there have been polls released in the race.  The last polls had Ms. Lake just short of 50% with a third candidate also on the race.  There were still enough undecideds that Sheriff Lamb could eek out the win, but most likely Ms. Lake will be the nominee.  And that is good news for the Democrats as Ms. Lake will spend half her time whining about how the 2022 governor’s race was “stolen” and how McCain Republicans are RINOs who need to get out of the party.  Those two tendencies will hurt both her and Donald Trump (who has the same tendencies except for substituting 2020 for 2022).

Moving to the Congressional elections, the First District (the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix is a swing district.  The incumbent Republican has token opposition, but the Democratic primary has six candidates, five of whom have raised over $1 million for the primary.  Not surprisingly, the latest polling shows nobody over 20% with one-third of the voters still undecided.  Basically, anybody could win the primary. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections, Senate | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Arizona and Tennessee Primaries

The Rules Package

We now know officially the process that will be used to pick the Democratic nominee.  The Rules Committee of the Convention (which is a different body than the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee) formally adopted the rules for the convention in their meeting today.

As an initial point, the rules as a whole have been a work in progress for several months.  The decision of President Biden to withdraw required some modifications, but the general concepts were being drafted before this last weekend.  Additionally, one factor in the timetable set forth in the rules is the issue of Ohio.  While Ohio has passed a statute moving their deadline for certifying a nominee from the current date of August 7, that bill does not take effect until September 1.  As such, it is unclear what the deadline in Ohio really is.  To be on the safe side, the rules are acting as if August 7 is still the deadline.

The other thing to note is that a good chunk of the concepts in the proposal date back to prior conventions.  For a long time, both parties have had rules requiring potential candidates to demonstrate certain levels of support to get their names formally put forward on the convention floor.  In the old days, this process involved floor speeches putting the names “in nomination.”  As such, the rules were designed to prevent spending all night getting every candidate who had the support of a single delegate placed in nomination.   In the past, delegates actually physically signed the pledges of support for the potential candidates with the deadline being shortly before the roll call vote.  With COVID in 2020, the party went to a virtual vote with pledges of support being handled electronically. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2024 Convention | Tagged , | Comments Off on The Rules Package

Don’t think we’re getting a contested convention

With President Biden dropping out of the 2024 race, the endorsements for VP Harris from potential competitors are flowing in. Newsom, Buttigieg, Whitmer have all endorsed Harris for the Democratic nomination or at least said they would not run themselves.  As some have noted, it’s similar to how the party coalesced behind Biden in 2020 just before Super Tuesday.

Marianne Williamson has said she is running, and Joe Manchin is making noise, but, remember, these are all Biden delegates who will make the decision. Unless a mainstream Democrat runs against Harris, the nomination will be hers without a fight.

Update: Tmess2 makes good points below, but the North Carolina delegation just announced unanimous support for Harris.  It’s actually shades of the smoke-filled rooms of years gone past – but – without a mainstream Democrat to run against her, Harris will be the nominee. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2024 Convention | Tagged | 1 Comment

What Now?

We have just entered uncharted territory with the decision by President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race.

This is not the first time that the nominee has been unclear heading into a convention, but this is the first time in the modern era that this has happened.  In the old days (pre-1972), voters had very little say in who the presidential nominee would be.  While there were primaries, they were as likely to be beauty contests rather than something that was binding on the allocation of delegates.  The overwhelming majority of delegates went to the nominating conventions as uncommitted or pledged to a “favorite son” (and it was always a “son” back then).  Whether uncommitted or pledged to a favorite son, most delegates were de facto selected by state or local party leaders.

But a lot has changed in sixty years.  State parties have grown a lot weaker.  Even on state committees, there are a significant number of members who do not support the state leadership.  While state party leadership may, in some cases, try to push certain people as delegates, those efforts are only partially successful at best. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2024 Convention, Delegates, Democratic Party | Comments Off on What Now?

GOP starts convention

  • Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance today marks the first time since 1988 that a VP pick was announced after the convention started. This used to be the norm – even with a presidential nominee that was not in doubt, like Jimmy Carter in 1976, Carter did not announce Mondale as his VP until Thursday morning of convention week.
  • Security plans were under review after the Trump attempted assassination
  • Here’s the bottom line on attempts to replace Biden at the convention. It’s not happening.  The delegates are core Biden supporters. Unless Biden decides himself to withdraw his name from nomination, he will be the nominee.

Posted in 2024 Convention | Tagged , | Comments Off on GOP starts convention

UK and French Election Results

Now that the elections in the United Kingdom and France are over, what were the results and what do they mean for the U.S. and our elections.

Starting with the U.K., there were three basic story lines.  First, across all three parts of Britain, the Conservatives had a significant decline (around 20% of the vote).  Most of this vote went to the far-right Reform Party which gained 12%.  The remaining 8% probably went to Labour and the Liberal Democrats but, for the most part, these two parties shed some of their vote to the Greens and independents with Labour netting a gain of around 1.6% of the vote and the Liberal Democrats netting a gain of around 0.7%.  Because the U.K. uses a first past-the-post system, Labour won a lot of seats in which they had been the number two party and the Liberal Democrats won a lot of seats in which they had been the number two party.  Taking 12% of the vote away from the Conservatives only translated into a handful of seats for Reform.  But the Conservatives slightly outperformed their last poll numbers and, unlike what the polls suggested, Labour did not pick up a lot of votes over their 2019 performance.  And the effect of that was that Conservatives avoided the complete disaster that some of the poll numbers suggested might happened and merely had an almost complete disaster (fewest seats ever).

Second, the politics of Scotland are and were different than the politics of England and Wales.  In Scotland, there is an overwhelming left of center majority.  For the past three U.K. elections, most supporters of Scottish independence (around 45% of the total vote) supported the Scottish Nationalist Party.  But the SNP, which is the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, has recently had problems.  As such, there was a massive shift in votes from the SNP to Labour.  Just as the Conservatives were typically one of the top two parties in most seats in England and Wales, the SNP was typically one of the top two parties in Scotland.  Just like in the rest of the U.K,, Labour picked up a lot of seats in Scotland in which they were the number two party and the Liberal Democrats picked up some seats in which they had been the number.  For the Conservatives, the mutual collapse of both the SNP and Conservatives meant that the Conservatives kept most of their seats in Scotland (only losing one to the SNP) as neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats were close enough in those seats to pick up the scraps. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections | Tagged , | Comments Off on UK and French Election Results

Administrative State — Condition Critical

When I was going to law school, there was this relatively new group dedicated to a legal counter-revolution.  One of their desires was to roll back the growth of the administrative state.  According to this group, the Supreme Court of the 1900-1935 period had it right, and that many aspects of administrative law were unconstitutional.  They sought to overturn most of the Supreme Court decisions regarding administrative law from the 1935-86 period.  That group was the Federalist Society, and the legal extremists who were outliers in 1990 are, while still extremists and outliers, now the majority of the U.S. Supreme Court.  The end of term saw three major decisions which show that these supporters of laissez faire capitalism which place investors over workers, consumers and the general public are very close to near total success.

To understand these decisions, a brief background on administrative law would be helpful.  The basic concept of the administrative state is that the real world is complex and that the legislative process is too cumbersome (and legislators are too lacking in technical expertise) to quickly adjust to changes.  To meet this need, Congress established administrative agencies which would have the expertise to evaluate changes and could quickly enact regulations to deal with those changes.  In the early days, the Supreme Court resisted this process under the “non-delegation doctrine” which held that Congress could not delegate the power to make law.  After the New Deal, the Supreme Court found that Congress could delegate the power to make rules as long as the statutes granting that regulatory power was sufficiently clear on the desired goals of the regulations and the standards that the agencies were to follow in those regulations.  In recent years, there has been an attempt to partially resurrect the non-delegation doctrine in the form of the “major questions doctrine” which seeks to limit the application of the existing laws to new issues even though the very reason for administrative agencies is to increase the flexibility to respond to new issues in a field.    Shortly after World War II, Congress adopted the Administrative Procedure Act — a complex set of laws which detail the process for adopting regulations (longer than the early advocates of administrative law would have liked), challenging those regulations, and imposing administrative penalties for violations of those regulations.  This year’s cases involved three aspects of that administrative process.

The most significant of these cases involve whether a regulation is authorized by statute.  Back in the 1980, when many judges were appointed by Democrats but Republicans were in the White House, a Republican-controlled Supreme Court decided in a case involving Chevron and environmental groups that courts should defer to the interpretation given by administrative agencies of ambiguous statutes in determining the validity of regulations.  There were always question about how ambiguous a statute needed to be for Chevron deference to apply and whether recently adopted views (of the political appointees over the agency) should be given the same deference as long-standing interpretations, but the basic concept was considered good law.  But to a group trying to neuter the administrative state, allowing agencies broad discretion to determine what regulations are allowed was something that could not be tolerated.  For most of the past decade or so, this crusade had to be satisfied with a Supreme Court that abused textualism to find that statutes were not sufficiently ambiguous and that the administrative agencies’ interpretations of their governing statutes were, therefore, not reasonable.  To be crystal clear, at a general level, this push back on Chevron deference is not completely insane.  An administrative agency should not be allowed to ignore the governing statute, and it is primarily the obligation of the judicial branch to determine the meaning of a statute.  But, in many cases, the rules for construing statutes suggest multiple alternative answers.  While one answer may be the “best” answer under the rules, it is not crystal clear that the “best” answer is the answer that Congress intended.  When there is no conclusive answer, should the agency have some flexibility or should a split Supreme Court (or appellate court) be able to insist on one answer. Continue Reading...

Posted in Judicial | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Administrative State — Condition Critical

The First Amendment and the Internet

The last week of the Supreme Court term was an utter disaster for anybody believing in the rule of law.  I will get to the worst of the worst over the next week, but I am going to start with the cases that merely had ambiguous result.

The Supreme Court had two cases involving how the First Amendment applies to social media companies.  The first, Murthy vs. Missouri, involved whether governmental “jawboning” of social media companies to more closely control the content posted on their websites was improper coercion infringing on the First Amendment rights of users of those websites.  The second, Moody vs. NetChoice (and the companion case, NetChoice vs. Paxton — yes, that Paxton) involves the state laws of Florida and Texas that seek to regulate the ability of social media websites to edit their own content.

Starting with Murthy, this case was brought in the Western District of Louisiana.  While it was brought in a division that had multiple judges, they were all appointed by President Trump.  In other words, it was guaranteed to have a judge who was sympathetic to plaintiffs’ complaints.  The plaintiffs were a mix of private conspiracy theorists and the Republican Attorney Generals of Louisiana and Missouri.  The gist of their complaints was that various social media websites had removed or downgraded certain posts submitted by these individuals under those companies’ policies governing the content of posts.  These posts included misinformation about topics like COVID and the elections.  At the same time, certain officials in the federal government were reaching out to these companies to encourage them to take a more vigorous editorial control over the content of their websites to block such information.  Plaintiffs alleged that, even though these officials had no regulatory authority over these websites, just the fact that the federal government was raising these issues with these companies was coercive and that the various websites took adverse actions with regards to the individuals posts. Continue Reading...

Posted in Judicial | Tagged , , | Comments Off on The First Amendment and the Internet

United Kingdom election

We in the U.S. probably pay much more attention to the United Kingdom than it merits.  The advantage of having a mostly shared language, the British Broadcasting Corporation being one of the premier news organizations, the cultural ties , and the history of U.S. news companies basing their foreign desk in London means that it Americans get a lot of international news out of the United Kingdom and much less from other countries.

Today, the United Kingdom will cast ballots to elect a new House of Commons.  As the name suggests, the House of Lords is not a fully-democratic body (although recent changes have created an electoral process in which only some of the hereditary nobility hold seats in the House of Lords with the heredity nobility choosing who gets to fill those seats).    And membership in the House of Lords is for life (except those, like the bishops of the Church of England, who hold a seat by virtue of their office).  So the election is only for the House of Commons.  But in the U.K.’s current political system, almost all of the power rests with the House of Commons.  The House of Lords has the right to propose amendments to legislation passed by the Commons, but, ultimately, the Lords are expected to go along with whatever the Commons ultimately passes after the back and forth over amendments.

The House of Commons is composed of 650 members.  Like in the U.S., the seats are distributed to the different regions of the country based on population.  The rules are not quite as strict as in the U.S. in terms of the permitted variation, and there are some remote districts which are “protected” by law, but the general principle of “one person, one vote” remains.  The district lines, since the 1940s, are drawn by nonpartisan boundary commissions (one for each of the four “nations” — England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales — which comprise the United Kingdom.)  As such, the first step in drawing the lines is determining how many seats each nation gets (and within England, the seats are further allocated by region).  The process is somewhat drawn out with multiple rounds of maps being published and the public getting to comment on it.  While the review starts every eight years, it has to be completed before the next election or the process stars over after the next election.  As a result, this election features the first new maps since the 2010 election.  In discussing the likely swing in this election, you have three different baselines: 1) the number of seats actually held at the end of parliament; 2) the number of seats won in 2019 (as there are usually multiple vacancies during the five-year term of a parliament with the by-elections — what we could call special elections — having a different result than the last general election and sometimes members change parties); and 3) “notional” seats (a guess at what the results would have been in 2019 under the new lines). Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on United Kingdom election